The Nations Championship returns this weekend after the first three rounds were played in July. The action now moves to Europe, with another three rounds to come before the finals weekend at Twickenham from 27 to 29 November.
Bet: Scotland v New Zealand
Posted 02 November 09h58
2.5 units (1-5) New Zealand -8.5 points at 19/20 at World Sports Betting
I am getting my 1st bet down early and a full explanation in the Scotland v New Zealand match preview
Nations Championship Round 4 – Early Weather Forecast
Monday 2 November 2026 | All kickoffs South African time
An early look at the weather for this weekend's six Nations Championship matches suggests generally favourable playing conditions. Temperatures will be on the cool side, but there is currently little indication of significant rain or strong winds at kickoff.
Wales v Japan will (almost certainly) be played under the roof at the Principality Stadium, so outside weather conditions should not be a factor.
Friday 6 November
Ireland v Argentina
Dublin · KO 22:10
Cloudy and cool, around 9°C. Dry conditions expected with little wind.
9°C
Saturday 7 November
Italy v South Africa
Turin · KO 13:40
Mostly cloudy, around 12–14°C. Very little chance of rain and favourable playing conditions.
13°C
Scotland v New Zealand
Edinburgh · KO 16:10
Overcast and chilly, around 9–10°C. Rain is unlikely during the match, with light winds forecast.
9°C
Wales v Japan
Cardiff · KO 18:40
Under the closed roof at the Principality Stadium. Weather should have no impact on playing conditions.
Roof closed
France v Fiji
Lyon · KO 22:10
Cloudy and cool, around 9°C. Dry conditions expected with very little wind.
9°C
Sunday 8 November
England v Australia
London · KO 17:10
Partly sunny and cool, around 10–11°C. Dry weather and light winds expected.
11°C
Early betting-weather assessment: Nothing particularly concerning at this stage. All five outdoor matches are forecast to be largely dry, with no major wind concerns. Scotland v New Zealand will be chilly, while Wales v Japan has the advantage of controlled conditions under the roof.
Forecasts are preliminary and subject to change. We will revisit conditions closer to kickoff, particularly wind speeds and the possibility of rain.
Update heading into Round 4
The competition features 12 teams divided into Northern and Southern Hemisphere groups. Each team plays all six opponents from the other hemisphere, with the group winners meeting in the final on 29 November. The remaining teams also face their opposite-ranked counterparts over finals weekend.
South Africa and New Zealand are the only unbeaten sides after three rounds, both sitting on 15 points in the Southern Hemisphere group. The Springboks lead on points difference, with Australia third on eight points, followed by Argentina on seven, Japan on four and Fiji yet to register a point.
France lead the Northern Hemisphere group on 12 points, just ahead of Scotland on 11. England and Ireland are both on 10, Wales have five and Italy are still looking for their first point.
We'll use this blog to track the latest betting, handicap movements and any selections that catch our eye during Round 4.
Nations Championship Outright Betting
The Springboks are favourites to win the inaugural Nations Championship, with New Zealand and France next in the market.
Latest outright betting:
- South Africa – 1/1
- New Zealand – 3/1
- France – 13/4
- England – 17/2
- Ireland – 16/1
- Scotland – 28/1
South Africa and New Zealand are well placed to contest the Southern Hemisphere's spot in the final, while the Northern Hemisphere race looks much more open, with France, Scotland, England and Ireland separated by just two points.
Round 4 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Handicaps correct at time of posting on 1 November
Friday 6 November
IRELAND V ARGENTINA
Handicap: Ireland -12.5
Ireland sit fourth in the Northern Hemisphere group on 10 points, while Argentina are fourth in the Southern Hemisphere group on seven.
Ireland have won two of their three matches, as have most of their Northern Hemisphere rivals, and will be keen to get their November campaign off to a winning start. Argentina have one win from three, and the bookmakers have Ireland clear favourites in Dublin.
I will be watching Argentina team news as at full strength I think they are runners.
Saturday 7 November
ITALY V SOUTH AFRICA
Handicap: South Africa -20.5
Italy are bottom of the Northern Hemisphere group with no points, while South Africa lead the Southern Hemisphere group with a maximum 15 points.
The Springboks won all three July fixtures, scoring 130 points and conceding just 49. They are strong favourites in Turin, with the opening handicap asking them to win by more than three converted tries.
The Boks will know that bonus points and points difference could play a big role in the Southern Hemisphere section.
SCOTLAND V NEW ZEALAND
Handicap: New Zealand -8.5
Scotland are second in the Northern Hemisphere group on 11 points, while New Zealand sit second in the Southern Hemisphere group on 15.
This looks one of the more interesting games of the weekend. Scotland won two of their three July fixtures, while the All Blacks remain unbeaten. New Zealand are clear favourites, but Scotland will fancy their chances of making a game of it at Murrayfield.
WALES V JAPAN
Handicap: Wales -10.5
Wales sit fifth in the Northern Hemisphere group on five points, while Japan are fifth in the Southern Hemisphere group on four.
Both sides have managed just one win from three matches. Wales will be looking to make home advantage count in Cardiff, although Japan will see this as one of their better opportunities to pick up another victory.
Both sides have shown some promising form of late.
FRANCE V FIJI
Handicap: France -23.5
France lead the Northern Hemisphere group on 12 points, while Fiji are bottom of the Southern Hemisphere group without a point.
France have won two of their three fixtures, with their only defeat coming narrowly against New Zealand. Fiji have lost all three matches, and the French are unsurprisingly the biggest handicap favourites of the weekend.
Keep an eye on Fiji team news.
Sunday 8 November
ENGLAND V AUSTRALIA
Handicap: England -10.5
England are third in the Northern Hemisphere group on 10 points, while Australia sit third in the Southern Hemisphere group on eight.
England won two of their three July fixtures, while Australia managed just one victory. The Wallabies have been competitive at times, but England are favourites at Twickenham, with the handicap currently in double figures.
Looking Ahead
Round 5 takes place from 13 to 15 November, with France hosting South Africa in Paris one of the standout fixtures. The Springboks then travel to Dublin to face Ireland in Round 6, while New Zealand have a potentially decisive meeting with England at Twickenham.
After the six rounds, the teams will be ranked within their respective hemisphere groups, with the top Northern and Southern Hemisphere sides meeting in the final on Sunday 29 November.
We'll update this blog as the week progresses, particularly once team news becomes available and the betting markets start to move.
Disclaimer: Betting markets and handicaps are subject to change. Always check the latest prices and team news before placing a bet.