In this blog we review our Matchday 3 bets, reflect on how they fared, and turn the spotlight onto next weekend’s Quarter-Finals. As always, we’ll keep the focus on betting angles including handicaps, points lines, team news and conditions.
BET: ENGLAND v SCOTLAND
Posted 14 Sep 14h55
3 units Scotland under 7.5 points at Hollywoodbets
This handicap was -40.5 England early doors and while there is some -39.5 floating about there has not been a lot of movement.
The points line is 55.5 and rain and win is expected.
The Scots have impressed me but I think they will struggle against the suffocating English defense that only conceded 7 against the USA and 7 against Australia.
BET: FRANCE v IRELAND
Posted 14 Sep 10h19
3 units Ireland under 13.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet
The handicap has been fairly stable at the France -17.5 and -18.5 levels.
The points line opened 48.5 but is now as low as 44.5 with rain forecast during the game and high humidity levels.
I am leaning France here but the bet I will take is that their excellent defence (0 points conceded against Italy and 10 against SA) will continue and that Ireland will battle to score points.
BET: CANADA v AUSTRALIA
Posted Sep 12 23h48
3 units Australia +27.5 at 0.86/1 at Betxchange
This handicap opened Canada -23.5 which was a few points higher than my handicap of -16.5. I was surprised then to see it move out further to the current line of -27.5.
The points line is 52.5 and if pressed I would be an overs punter but it is the handicap where I am having an interest.
Canada are an excellent team but Australia have impressed me at times and I think they are capable of making life difficult for the favourites.
BET: NEW ZEALAND v SOUTH AFRICA
Posted 12 Sep 34
3 units over 52.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
This game has a massive handicap of New Zealand -38.5 and it has been stable all week.
I think that this South African team can give the Black Ferns some trouble early but will be well beaten.
I have no firm view on the cap but I like total points overs.
There is rain about a few hours before the game and possible rain during the game but I will take my chances and bet we will have 53 points or more in the game.
WEATHER AND BETTING UPDATES
Posted 12 Sep 07h20
Here is the latest betting on all 4 quarters as well as the current weather forecast
New Zealand -38.5 v South Africa, points 53.5, Exeter weather, high teens, possible showers, humidity late 60's, wind - click here for updates
Canada -27.5 v Australia, points 52.5, Bristol weather, possible storms, temp mid teens, humidity early 80's - click here for updates
France -23.5 v Ireland, points 48.6, Exeter weather, high teens, likely rain, humidity late 80's - click here for updates
England -41.5 v Scotland, points 55.5, Bristol weather, rain, temp high teens, humidity in 90's - click here for updates
Forecasts change so please check before betting
1st bet to follow later today
Quarter Final Line Ups For New Zealand v South Africa
New Zealand: 15 Renee Holmes, 14 Braxton Sorensen-McGee, 13 Stacey Waaka, 12 Theresa Setefano, 11 Portia Woodman-Wickliffe, 10 Ruahei Demant (co-captain), 9 Maia Joseph, 8 Kaipo Olsen-Baker, 7 Jorja Miller, 6 Liana Mikaele-Tu’u, 5 Alana Bremner, 4 Maiakawanakaulani Roos, 3 Veisinia Mahutariki-Fakalelu, 2 Georgia Ponsonby, 1 Chryss Viliko.
Replacements: 16 Atlanta Lolohea, 17 Awhina Tangen-Wainohu, 18 Kate Henwood, 19 Laura Bayfield, 20 Kennedy Tukuafu (co-captain), 21 Iritana Hohaia, 22 Amy du Plessis, 23 Ayesha Leti-I’iga
South Africa: 15 Byrhandré Dolf, 14 Maceala Samboya, 13 Zintle Mpupha, 12 Aphiwe Ngwevu, 11 Ayanda Malinga, 10 Libbie Janse van Rensburg, 9 Nadine Roos, 8 Aseza Hele, 7 Sinazo Mcatshulwa, 6 Sizophila Solontsi, 5 Danelle Lochner, 4 Nolusindiso Booi (captain), 3 Babalwa Latsha, 2 Lindelwa Gwala, 1 Sanelisiwe Charlie.
Replacements: 16 Luchell Hanekom, 17 Yonela Ngxingolo, 18 Nombuyekezo Mdliki, 19 Vainah Ubisi, 20 Anathi Qolo, 21 Lerato Makua, 22 Catha Jacobs, 23 Eloise Webb
ALL STABLE IN THE BETTING MARKETS
Posted 10 Sep 08h59
No movement to report which I must say is a bit surprising.
I will get the weather forecasts up later today
HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 8 Sep 18h17
Current handicaps in brackets next to my projections
England -35.5 (-40.5) v Scotland
Canada -16.5 (-23.5) v Australia
New Zealand -36.5 (-38.5) v South Africa
France -17.5 v (-23.5) Ireland
Differences from 2-7 points all bigger minuses than mine. I am not making any early moves.
OUTRIGHT BETTING
Posted 08 Sep 13h51
England remain short priced favourites at 1/4
England 0.25
New Zealand 4.45
Canada 6.45
France 16.00
Ireland 149.00
Australia 149.00
South Africa 249.00
Scotland 249.00
Bets Recap – Matchday 3
-
Italy v Brazil
Bet: 2 units Italy -57.5 at 9/10 (Pokerbet)
Italy ended their campaign in style with a 64–3 win. The cover was left late but all that counts was that the bet landed. ✅ -
New Zealand v Ireland
Bet: 2 units New Zealand -13.5 1st half handicap at 17/20 (Hollywoodbets)
The Black Ferns raced into a 19–0 half-time lead and never looked back, eventually winning 40–0. Another winning bet. ✅ -
France v South Africa
Bet: 4 units France -21.5 at 0.92/1 (Betxchange)
South Africa sent out a much-changed side and France punished them with a 57-10, covering the line with ease. We got on the =21.5 early and the line moved to -27.5 by kickoff ✅ -
Japan v Spain
Bet: 2 units Over 7.5 tries at 17/20 (Sportingbet)
This bet looked in trouble but a late Spanis try sealed the win. Japan won 29-21. ✅ -
England v Australia
Bet: 2 units Australia +47.5 at 17/20 (Sportingbet)
England won 47–7, but Australia stayed inside the line, thanks to a fast start ✅ -
Wales v Fiji
Bet: 1 unit Fiji win at 19/10 (Hollywoodbets)
Fiji got it done in a tight battle, beating Wales 28–25 with all of their points coming in the 1st half. A small bet but a nice hit on the outsider. ✅ -
Canada v Scotland
Bet: 2 units Canada -13.5 HT handicap at 17/20 (Pokerbet)
Canada led 19-5 at the break and ran out 40–19 winners. Another bet that scraped in. ✅ -
USA v Samoa
Bet: 3 units USA -56.5 (Pokerbet)
USA hammered Samoa 60–0 and cleared the spread but they left things late and we had to rely on a late conversion to seal the deal. ✅
Summary: Matchday 3 was an excellent round from a betting perspective with all selections landing.
Quarter-Finals Preview
The pool stage is complete, and now the real business begins. The top two from each group progress, and the bracket looks like this:
Saturday, 13 September – Exeter & Bristol
-
New Zealand v South Africa – Sandy Park, Exeter
-
Canada v Australia – Ashton Gate, Bristol
Sunday, 14 September – Exeter & Bristol
-
France v Ireland – Sandy Park, Exeter
-
England v Scotland – Ashton Gate, Bristol
My early handicap projections
-
England -35.5 v Scotland
-
Canada -16.5 v Australia
-
New Zealand -36.5 v South Africa
-
France -17.5 v Ireland
Weather at Sandy Park and Ashton Gate will also play a key role, particularly for totals markets.
If you are not getting my weekly newsletter then click here