The fourth round of the Nations Championship is complete, and we've got some fascinating battles developing at the top of both hemispheres as we head into the final two rounds.
Nations Championship Round 5 – Early Weather Forecast
Posted 09 November 12h35
We're still a few days away from Round 5 of the Nations Championship, but I've had an early look at the weather forecasts for all six matches.
At this stage, conditions look reasonably favourable across Europe, with generally dry weather expected. Temperatures will be on the chilly side, particularly for the evening matches, but there are no major weather concerns showing up in the early forecasts.
Here's how things are looking, with all kickoff times in South African time.
Friday 13 November
France v South Africa – Paris, 22:10
The early forecast for the Stade de France looks promising, with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 5–7°C at kickoff. Very little chance of rain and light winds are expected.
Conditions could be excellent for rugby despite the cold, with neither handling nor kicking likely to be significantly affected by the weather.
Hourly weather forecast – Paris
Saturday 14 November
Italy v Argentina – Genoa, 13:40
A cool and mostly cloudy afternoon is expected, with temperatures around 11°C. The early forecast suggests dry conditions and light winds, which should suit both sides.
Hourly weather forecast – Genoa
Wales v New Zealand – Cardiff, 16:10
We're working on the assumption that the Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this match, so outside weather conditions shouldn't be a factor.
With dry conditions guaranteed under the roof and no wind to contend with, the conditions should be ideal for running rugby. This could suit New Zealand's attacking game, particularly as they look to improve their points difference in the race with South Africa for top spot in the Southern Hemisphere standings.
England v Japan – London, 18:40
The early forecast for Twickenham suggests cool, dry conditions, with temperatures around 8–9°C. Winds are expected to be light, and there is little indication of rain during the match.
Hourly weather forecast – London
Ireland v Fiji – Dublin, 22:10
A chilly evening is expected in Dublin, with temperatures potentially falling towards 3–8°C. The early forecast is largely dry, with light winds.
The cold could be a factor for Fiji, but at this stage there is no indication that rain or wind will significantly affect the game.
Hourly weather forecast – Dublin
Sunday 15 November
Scotland v Australia – Edinburgh, 17:10
This looks likely to be the coldest fixture of the weekend, with temperatures around 5°C at Murrayfield.
Cloudy but largely dry conditions are forecast, with light winds. It could be uncomfortable for the players, although the weather doesn't currently look likely to have a major influence on the match.
Hourly weather forecast – Edinburgh
Early Betting Weather Assessment
With the roof assumed to be closed in Cardiff and largely dry conditions forecast elsewhere, there are no obvious weather-related reasons to favour unders at this stage. I do expect the bookies to adjust their points lines though.
I'll revisit the forecasts later in the week, particularly once we have a clearer picture of the wind conditions.
Disclaimer: These are early weather forecasts as at 9 November and are subject to change. The closed-roof arrangement in Cardiff is assumed rather than confirmed. Punters should check the latest conditions closer to kickoff before placing their bets.
Nations Championship Round 5 – Opening Handicaps vs My Projections
Posted 09 November 11h39
The bookmakers have started putting up their handicap lines for Round 5 of the Nations Championship, and there are a few interesting differences compared with the projections I posted yesterday.
Below are the opening lines, with my original projections shown in brackets. I've highlighted the matches where there's a difference of two points or more.
France +6.5 (+3.5) v South Africa - update 12h33, Boks now -7.5 in places
Italy +10.5 (+12.5) v Argentina
Wales +31.5 (+27.5) v New Zealand
England -30.5 (-28.5) v Japan
Ireland -25.5 (-22.5) v Fiji
Scotland -5.5 (-4.5) v Australia
Early Thoughts
There are a number of differences between my handicaps and those of the bookmakers, and I note that France have already moved from +5.5 to +6.5 against South Africa. The French have been hard hit by injuries, so the money for the Springboks is understandable.
I handicapped Wales v New Zealand at +27.5 and was hoping the bookmakers would come out somewhere around that mark. I do think the All Blacks will be looking to rack up the points difference in this one, and I certainly won't be taking Wales with a 31.5-point start.
Ireland v Fiji has a three-point difference between my projection and the bookmakers' line, but that's not enough to tempt me into getting involved.
I'll be keeping an eye on the markets as the week progresses.
Nations Championship Round 5 – Early Handicap Projections
Posted 08 Nov 21h19
Here are my handicap projections for all six matches. These are where I expect the betting line to settle and I will compare with the bookmakers when they price up
France +3.5 v South Africa
Italy +12.5 v Argentina
Wales +27.5 v New Zealand
England -28.5 v Japan
Ireland -22.5 v Fiji
Scotland -4.5 v Australia
I'll be keeping an eye on the opening lines and will post any early betting opportunities as they become available.
The rugby betting thread for the new week is open in our forum
South Africa and New Zealand both recorded convincing victories to maintain their perfect records in the Southern Hemisphere, while France remain top of the Northern Hemisphere standings after an emphatic win over Fiji.
From a betting perspective, it was a mixed weekend for me. New Zealand delivered two excellent results, but Argentina and Australia both let me down. Overall, I finished pretty much even for the weekend.
Round 4 Review
Ireland 42–12 Argentina
My weekend got off to a bad start, as I was on Argentina +9.5 points.
There had been plenty of money for the Pumas during the week, with their handicap shortening from +12.5 to +9.5, but the bookmakers certainly got the better of punters on this one.
Argentina made a promising start and looked competitive for the opening ten minutes, but from there they were absolutely blown away by Ireland.
The Irish were far too strong and ran out comfortable 42–12 winners, leaving me with a losing bet to start the weekend.
Italy 7–66 South Africa
The Springboks were heavily backed during the week, with their handicap moving from an early -21.5 to -28.5 by kickoff, and they duly delivered for punters.
South Africa were completely dominant, running in ten tries and restricting Italy to just seven points.
I didn't get involved in the handicap market, as I felt the line had reached about the right level. My only interest was a small speculative play on Grant Williams to score the final South African try at 10/1, but unfortunately that didn't materialise.
A hugely impressive performance from the Boks, who also gave their points difference a massive boost.
Scotland 21–43 New Zealand
This was comfortably my best game of the weekend from a betting perspective.
I managed to get on New Zealand early at -8.5 points and also backed them to score over 33.5 team points. Both bets arrived, putting me ahead for the weekend.
It was also a cracking game to watch, and the final scoreline doesn't really reflect just how close Scotland came to upsetting the All Blacks.
The Scots gave New Zealand a tremendous contest, but the All Blacks eventually pulled clear to win by 22 points.
New Zealand remain unbeaten in the competition, and I'm still very happy with my outright position on them at 3/1 although I suspect there will be a bigger price available now.
Wales 28–21 Japan
I didn't get to watch this match, but I had Japan with a 15.5-point start, which arrived comfortably.
There had been plenty of money for Wales during the week, with their handicap moving from -10.5 to as high as -15.5 before easing slightly.
Japan stayed competitive and eventually went down by just seven points.
I'll need to catch up on the highlights to get a better feel for this Welsh side ahead of their meeting with New Zealand next weekend.
France 54–17 Fiji
France were giving Fiji a 24.5-point start, and although I didn't have a particularly strong fancy in the match, I decided to get involved with Fiji on the plus.
That proved to be a mistake.
I wasn't able to watch the game, but the scoreline tells its own story, with France running out emphatic 54–17 winners.
The French remain in pole position in the Northern Hemisphere standings, and their clash with South Africa next weekend is shaping up to be one of the matches of the tournament.
England 45–22 Australia
This was the big disappointment of the weekend for me.
I had Australia +8.5 points as a straight bet, but also had a number of doubles and trebles riding on the Wallabies staying within the handicap.
Unfortunately, Australia were never really in the contest. England dominated the first half and were able to hold the Wallabies off comfortably in the second, eventually winning 45–22.
I had been keen on Australia since discussing the match with The Mossman on Thursday night's Rugby Betting Show, but we got this one badly wrong.
That result wiped out much of the profit from Saturday, leaving me pretty much square for the weekend.
Nations Championship Standings After Round 4
Northern Hemisphere
France remain top of the Northern Hemisphere standings on 17 points following their convincing victory over Fiji. They have won three of their four matches and hold a two-point advantage over England and Ireland, who are both on 15 points.
England occupy second place thanks to their superior points difference of +71, compared with Ireland's +29. France have a points difference of +78, so there is very little separating the top two in that department.
Scotland are fourth on 11 points, having won two of their four matches, while Wales are just a point further back on 10 following their victory over Japan.
Italy remain rooted to the bottom of the standings, having lost all four matches without picking up a single competition point.
The battle for top spot remains wide open, particularly with France facing South Africa next weekend and England still to play New Zealand in the final round.
Southern Hemisphere
South Africa and New Zealand remain locked together at the top of the Southern Hemisphere standings, both having won all four matches with bonus points to collect the maximum 20 points.
The Springboks hold a significant advantage on points difference, sitting at +140 compared with New Zealand's +73. Their 66–7 demolition of Italy added another 59 points to that advantage, while the All Blacks improved their difference by 22 points with their victory over Scotland.
However, the remaining fixtures could still work in New Zealand's favour. South Africa face France and Ireland in successive weeks, while the All Blacks take on Wales and England.
I've already backed New Zealand at 3/1 to win the tournament, and I still believe they represent decent if no longer excellent value.
Australia are a distant third on eight points, followed by Argentina on seven and Japan on five. Fiji remain bottom of the table without a point.
Looking Ahead to Round 5
The standout fixture next weekend is undoubtedly France against South Africa in Paris on Friday night.
France lead the Northern Hemisphere standings, while the Springboks are unbeaten and sitting top of the Southern Hemisphere table. It's a massive game for both teams and could have a significant impact on who reaches the final.
New Zealand travel to Cardiff to face Wales, and they'll be looking for another bonus-point victory as they attempt to close the points-difference gap on South Africa.
England host Japan at Twickenham, while Ireland will fancy their chances against Fiji in Dublin.
Scotland take on Australia in Edinburgh, and Italy host Argentina in Genoa.
With just two rounds remaining before the finals, bonus points and points difference could become increasingly important.
Nations Championship Round 5 Fixtures
Friday 13 November
France v South Africa – Paris
Saturday 14 November
Italy v Argentina – Genoa
Wales v New Zealand – Cardiff
England v Japan – London
Ireland v Fiji – Dublin
Sunday 15 November
Scotland v Australia – Edinburgh
I'll be back with the opening handicap lines and betting thoughts during the week as we look to get ahead of the bookmakers for Round 5.