Wales host New Zealand at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday in Round 5 of the Nations Championship, with the All Blacks looking to maintain their unbeaten record and keep the pressure on South Africa at the top of the Southern Hemisphere standings.
Wales picked up a narrow 28–21 victory over Japan last weekend, but they face a considerably tougher challenge against a New Zealand side that has won all four of its Nations Championship matches.
The All Blacks have dominated this fixture for decades, and with points difference potentially crucial in the race for a place in the final, they will be looking for another convincing victory.
Match: Wales v New Zealand
Competition: Nations Championship, Round 5
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Date: Saturday 14 November 2026
Kick-off: 16:10 South African time
Referee: Pierre Brousset (France)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Luc Ramos (France)
TMO: Tual Trainini (France)
Weather Forecast: We're working on the assumption that the Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this match, which would mean outside weather conditions won't be a factor. A closed roof would provide ideal conditions for running rugby, with no wind or rain to affect handling and kicking.
Hourly weather forecast – Cardiff
Wales
Wales currently occupy fifth place in the Northern Hemisphere standings with 10 points from four matches, having won two and lost two.
They opened their Nations Championship campaign with a 39–24 victory over Fiji in July before losing 35–21 to Argentina.
Things went from bad to worse in their third match when they were thrashed 43–0 by South Africa in Durban, a result that highlighted the gulf between Wales and the leading Southern Hemisphere sides.
Wales returned to action last weekend with a 28–21 victory over Japan in Cardiff. It was an important win for Steve Tandy's side, although the seven-point margin was hardly convincing given that the bookmakers had installed Wales as favourites by as much as 15.5 points.
There had been plenty of support for Wales in the betting markets, with their handicap moving from an early -10.5 to -15.5 before easing slightly.
Japan nevertheless stayed competitive throughout, and Wales will need a considerably better performance if they are to trouble the All Blacks.
They have conceded 123 points in four Nations Championship matches and have a points difference of -35.
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures:
Round 1: Fiji (a) WON 39–24
Round 2: Argentina (a) LOST 21–35
Round 3: South Africa (a) LOST 0–43
Round 4: Japan (h) WON 28–21
Round 5: New Zealand (h) – 14 November
Round 6: Australia (h) – 21 November
New Zealand
New Zealand have made a perfect start to their Nations Championship campaign, winning all four matches with bonus points to collect the maximum 20 points.
They currently sit second in the Southern Hemisphere standings, level with South Africa but trailing the Springboks on points difference.
South Africa have a considerable advantage of +140 compared with New Zealand's +73, and that could become increasingly important over the final two rounds.
The All Blacks opened the competition with a narrow 34–32 victory over France before recording convincing wins over Italy and Ireland.
They returned to action last weekend with a 43–21 victory over Scotland at Murrayfield.
Although the final scoreline suggests a comfortable win, Scotland gave the All Blacks a tremendous contest and threatened an upset before New Zealand pulled away in the closing stages.
From a betting perspective, New Zealand delivered on both the early -8.5 handicap and their team points line of over 33.5.
Dave Rennie's side have scored 164 points in four Nations Championship matches, averaging 41 points per game.
Since the July internationals, New Zealand have also been involved in the Greatest Rivalry series against South Africa, losing the four-Test series 3–1. They subsequently recorded two convincing victories over Australia in the Bledisloe Cup.
The All Blacks will be well aware that South Africa face a difficult finish to the Nations Championship, with matches against France and Ireland still to come.
New Zealand, meanwhile, face Wales this weekend before travelling to Twickenham to take on England in the final round.
While victory against Wales will be the immediate priority, I expect the All Blacks to be conscious of points difference and to keep attacking even if they establish a comfortable lead.
They have an outstanding recent record against Wales and will be confident of extending it.
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures:
Round 1: France (h) WON 34–32
Round 2: Italy (h) WON 47–17
Round 3: Ireland (h) WON 40–21
Round 4: Scotland (a) WON 43–21
Round 5: Wales (a) – 14 November
Round 6: England (a) – 21 November
Recent Head to Head
November 2025 – Cardiff – Wales 26–52 NEW ZEALAND
November 2022 – Cardiff – Wales 23–55 NEW ZEALAND
October 2021 – Cardiff – Wales 16–54 NEW ZEALAND
November 2019 – Rugby World Cup, Tokyo – Wales 17–40 NEW ZEALAND
November 2017 – Cardiff – Wales 18–33 NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand have won the last five meetings between the sides, scoring at least 40 points in four of those matches.
Their recent record in Cardiff is particularly impressive, with the All Blacks scoring 52, 55 and 54 points on their last three visits.
Wales have not beaten New Zealand since 1953, and the All Blacks have won every meeting between the countries since then.
The most recent encounter came in November 2025, when New Zealand won 52–26 in Cardiff.
Team News
Wales
Steve Tandy will be looking for a significant improvement following the narrow victory over Japan.
The availability of key players and any changes to the starting lineup will become clearer when the team is announced later in the week.
Starting XV: To follow.
Replacements: To follow.
New Zealand
Dave Rennie has a strong squad available, although changes to the starting lineup are possible following the victory over Scotland.
The All Blacks will also have one eye on their final-round clash with England, so team selection will be particularly important from a betting perspective.
Starting XV: To follow.
Replacements: To follow.
The Betting
Betting as at 09 November 2026
Wales +31.5 points at 1.87
New Zealand -31.5 points at 1.95
Betting Angle
To follow.
Follow our Nations Championship Round 5 betting blog for betting-related news and tips throughout the week.
See what other punters fancy and have your say in the Nations Championship Round 5 discussion thread.
Disclaimer: Betting odds and handicaps are correct at the time of writing but may change. Punters should check the latest prices, team news, weather conditions and relevant form before placing their bets.
