Baltimore, USA is the final stop on the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour as South Africa and New Zealand prepare for Saturday’s fourth test and the Springboks now lead the series 2-1.
South Africa vs New Zealand, Baltimore, Kick Off 23:00, Saturday 12th September
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)
Weather Forecast - Baltimore
South Africa:
South Africa took the series lead for the first time with a 29-24 win in Soweto last week and they are 2-1 up with this last test to play. The Boks were 7.5 point favourites for the third test, it was all square at 12-12 at half time and they hit the front on the scoreboard for the first time just before the hour mark, then pulled away and held off the All Blacks late challenge. Both sides scored 4 tries with Boks scorers being Arendse, a penalty try, Kriel and Marx. The total points line settled at around 54.5 and was pretty accurate.
In the second test in Cape Town Suth Africa came out on top 33-26. The main handicap line for the was either side of 7.5 points so proved to be accurate whilst the total points line of around 52.5 saw “overs” backers collect.
The first test took place in Johannesburg and although South Africa were 7.5 point favourites it was the All Blacks who drew first blood with a 33-16 victory. The total points line opened at 58.5 and settled at 56.5 and this was one for the “unders” backers.
After this the Bok head to Australia to take on the Wallabies in Perth on the 27th September.
New Zealand:
Ardie Savea scored two of the All Blacks 4 tries in the first half hour in Soweto but then left the field with an injury. Jordan and Taukei’aho were the other try scorers. They were in front for the majority of the first half and regained the lead with the first score of the second period before South Africa really put the hammer down and stretched the lead out to 12 points. The final try for the All Blacks reduced the deficit but came too late to save the game.
New Zealand conceded a try in the second minute of the second test in Cape Town and were never to see the lead in a 33-26 defeat. There only success in the tests came in Johannesburg with that 33-16 win in the opening contest.
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Results & Fixtures
Friday 7th August, Stormers 21-38 New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Tuesday 11th August, Sharks 0-54 New Zealand (Kings Park, Durban)
Saturday 15th August, Bulls 19-50 New Zealand (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria)
Saturday 22nd August, 1st test: South Africa 16-33 New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Tuesday 25th August, Lions 35-41 New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Saturday, 29th August, 2nd test: South Africa 33-26 New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Saturday, 5th September, 3rd test: South Africa 29-24 New Zealand (FNB Stadium, Soweto)
Saturday, 12th September, 4th test: South Africa v New Zealand (Baltimore, USA)
Earlier Head to Head Results
Sep 2025 RC Wellington New Zealand 10-43 South Africa
Sep 2025 RC Auckland New Zealand 24-17 South Africa
Sep 2024 RC Cape Town South Africa 18-12 New Zealand
Aug 2024 RC Johannesburg South Africa 31-27 New Zealand
Oct 2023 RWC Paris New Zealand 11-12 South Africa
Team News
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett.
The Betting
Updated 11 Sep 23h23
South Africa -6.5 points at 9/10
New Zealand +6.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle - betting updates and tips to be posted here, newest on top
Bet: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 12 September 14h43
2 units (1–5): Under 57.5 points at 17/20 with PokerBet
I waited a little too long on this one, with the total-points line having been set at 59.5 earlier in the week. As talk of possible showers and a slightly narrower field has increased, the line has moved down.
I’m less confident at 57.5, but I’m still going to have an interest to back up my extended-handicap play on South Africa.
That will be it for me for now, and I’m looking forward to watching the final Test of the series.
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Posted 12 Sep 09h37
The betting is stable and I will be back with final plays later.
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Bet: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 11 September 23h23
2 units (1–5): South Africa -12.5 at 18/10 with Hollywoodbets
The main handicap remains stable at around South Africa -6.5, but I’m going to channel my inner Oracle and take the Springboks with a larger start.
The main reason is that I’m eyeing a total-points play as my primary bet and don't want to tie too much cash up, but want to wait until the conditions are confirmed before getting involved.
Both teams are taking this match seriously, but I get the feeling that the Springboks are threatening to get on top of this New Zealand side, particularly with the All Blacks missing a few players.
I have a feeling the Boks could really stamp their authority on this one.
Total points set at 59.5
Posted 09 September 22h54
The New Zealand team was announced a short while ago and, as expected, there are several changes.
There hasn’t been any knee-jerk reaction in the betting markets, although money continues to arrive for South Africa. The Springboks are now -6.5 in places but remain generally available at -5.5.
The total-points line has been set at 59.5 and, with the possibility of some rain, I must admit that I’m tempted by the unders.
I’m going to keep my powder dry for now, though. A mate of mine is flying over to the game in the US, and I’ll be looking to him for some updates on the conditions.
South Africa v New Zealand betting update
Posted 10 September 21h49
Having opened at South Africa -2.5, the handicap has moved as I predicted in the forum, with the Springboks now as high as -5.5 in places.
South Africa have named a strong side, and I’m expecting a few more changes from the All Blacks when they announce their team.
I haven’t placed any bets at this stage, but I’ll be back with more later in the week.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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