Soweto is the next stop on the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour as South Africa and New Zealand prepare for Saturday’s third test with the series now all square at 1-1 with two to play.
South Africa vs New Zealand, Soweto, Kick Off 16:10, Saturday 5th September
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)
Weather Forecast – Soweto
South Africa:
After losing the series opener in Johannesburg the Springboks were under some pressure to bounce back in the second test in Cape Town last weekend and they came out on top 33-26. The Boks led 24-14 at half time and scored 3 of the games 7 tries and they all came in the first half through Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende and Siya Kolisi. All three tries were converted by Cheslin Kolbe who also landed 4 penalties. The main handicap line for the second test was either side of 7.5 points so proved to be accurate whilst the total points line of around 52.5 saw “overs” backers collect.
The first test took place in Johannesburg and although South Africa were 7.5 point favourites it was the All Blacks who drew first blood with a 33-16 victory. Suth Africa managed just the one try through Esterhuizen which was converted by Kolbe who also landed 3 penalties. There was only 1 point in it at half time with the Boks edging it but they eventually paid the price for missed opportunities with the All Blacks going on to score 5 tries in total. The total points line opened at 58.5 and settled at 56.5 and this was one for the “unders” backers.
After this the final contest will be staged in Baltimore in the USA.
New Zealand:
The All Blacks conceded a try in the second minute of the second test and were never to see the lead. They were down by more than two scores at one stage of the second half but fought back to narrow the deficit with tries from Leroy Carter (65 minutes) and Ardie Savea (76 minutes) but it wasn’t enough. In the first half Cam Roigard and Damian McKenzie scored tries for the All Blacks and Ruben Love as successful with 3 of the 4 conversions throughout the game.
Jordan (2), Moorby, Holland and Jacobson were the All Blacks try scorers in the 33-16 win in the first test in Johannesburg with Love landing 4 conversions. The lead changed hands a few times during the game but it was the All Blacks who were more clinical and they were 10 points to the good before the Boks picked up two yellows in the 70th minute. Jordan’s second try moments later put the issue beyond doubt.
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Results & Fixtures
Friday 7th August, Stormers 21-38 New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Tuesday 11th August, Sharks 0-54 New Zealand (Kings Park, Durban)
Saturday 15th August, Bulls 19-50 New Zealand (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria)
Saturday 22nd August, 1st test: South Africa 16-33 New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Tuesday 25th August, Lions 35-41 New Zealand (Ellis Park, Johannesburg)
Saturday, 29th August, 2nd test: South Africa 33-26 New Zealand (Cape Town Stadium)
Saturday, 5th September, 3rd test: South Africa v New Zealand (FNB Stadium, Soweto)
Saturday, 12th September, 4th test: South Africa v New Zealand (Baltimore, USA)
Head to Head Results
Aug 2026 RGR Cape Town South Africa 33-26 New Zealand
Aug 2026 RGR Johannesburg South Africa 16-33 New Zealand
Sep 2025 RC Wellington New Zealand 10-43 South Africa
Sep 2025 RC Auckland New Zealand 24-17 South Africa
Sep 2024 RC Cape Town South Africa 18-12 New Zealand
Aug 2024 RC Johannesburg South Africa 31-27 New Zealand
Oct 2023 RWC Paris New Zealand 11-12 South Africa
Team News
South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Peter Lakai, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 George Bower
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby
The Betting
Updated 02 Sep with WSB
South Africa -7.5 points at 9/10
New Zealand +7.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle - Betting updates and tips posted below, newest on top
Bets 3 & 4: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 05 September 16h15
The handicap remains stable, with South Africa available at either -6.5 or -7.5 depending on where you shop.
Conditions were good for the South Africa v New Zealand women’s match, and it looks increasingly likely that the rain will stay away. However, I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility of showers at some stage during the Test.
I’m around 15 kilometres from the stadium and we never had the sunshine that they enjoyed at FNB Stadium earlier. It also seems to be clouding over a little more now. Total points is stable at 54.5.
I’ve taken a couple of purely speculative last-try-scorer plays to add some interest to the game:
0.5 units (1–5): André Esterhuizen to be South Africa’s last try scorer at 16/1 with PokerBet
0.5 units (1–5): Fabian Holland to be New Zealand’s last try scorer at 33/1 with PokerBet
Weather moves in but odds unchanged
Posted 05 September 09h22
The predicted cold front has hit Johannesburg and, following some overnight rain, there are currently overcast skies and fairly strong winds, by Joburg standards, at least.
That being said, if the weather remains as it is and there is no further rain, I still think we could be in for an overs game.
The total-points line remains unchanged at 55.5, while South Africa are still generally available at -7.5. I have, however, seen the handicap move into -6.5 with some bookmakers, suggesting that there may have been some money for the All Blacks.
I’ll be back later today with any final bets.
Bet: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 4 September 08h30
0.5 units (1–5): Successful drop goal in the match – Yes at 6/1 with Sportingbet
The handicap remains stable at South Africa -7.5, although, as anticipated, the total-points line has moved out from 53.5 earlier in the week to 55.5.
While scanning through the bookmakers’ websites, I came across the Sportingbet specials market, where you can get 6/1 for a successful drop goal in the match.
There has been no sign of a drop goal in the series so far, but I have a sneaky feeling that may change on Saturday. I’m certainly not going to try to convince you that 6/1 represents value, but it should provide some added interest, particularly if the game is close.
The free weekly newsletter goes out later today and the best bet is in the NPC - get on my mailing list here
Points line edges up!
Posted 03 Sep 19h32
The points line has edged up to 54.5 from 53.5 and the handicap remains stable at -7.5 SA.
Join us live tonight at 21h00 for The Handicap our rugby betting show
Bet: South Africa v New Zealand
Posted 3 September 07h48
3 units (1–5): New Zealand over 22.5 points at 17/20 with Hollywoodbets
The handicap remains stable at South Africa -7.5 as we await the announcement of the New Zealand team.
There are not many bookmakers offering total-points markets yet, but a line of 53.5 is available. The latest weather forecast also suggests that the match may not be played in the rain after all, although this can obviously change.
In dry conditions, I would expect the points line to be around 57.5 or 58.5 and, even if there is some rain about, I’m still leaning towards a high-scoring match.
New Zealand scored 33 points in the first Test and 26 in defeat in the second. While I expect the Springboks to be more clinical themselves with their scoring opportunities this weekend, the All Blacks’ team total of 22.5 simply looks too low.
I’ll be back later in the week with a look at the other markets and potentially another bet or two.
Total points 53.5 in Soweto
There hasn’t been much early betting movement, although there has potentially been some money for South Africa, with the Springboks now generally available at -7.5.
The total-points line is set at 53.5 and, at first glance, the over looks tempting given that the match will be played on what should be a fast surface in Soweto.
A look at the weather forecast suggests some caution, though, with rain and wind currently predicted. I’m therefore going to sit this one out for now.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
More rugby bets from Brent can be found in the Currie Cup Blog and our preview of the second test between Argentina and Australia. Tips from other members of our community are posted on the weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.
