The United Rugby Championship continues from Friday 30 October, with eight Round 5 matches taking place across the weekend and in this blog, we’ll review the Round 4 action, track the latest handicaps and points lines, and post a few bets as kick off approaches and the markets become available.
Round 4 review
Cardiff 21 Sharks 36
I missed the early value on the Sharks, having priced them as favourites only for them to open as underdogs. The money soon arrived for the visitors, however, and they eventually started at -1.5, a handicap they comfortably covered.
From a betting perspective, I took a speculative Cardiff/Sharks half-time/full-time play at 6.3/1. The Sharks led at the break though and, although the Sharks fell further behind during the second half, they fought back to win comfortably.
Connacht 48 Zebre 27
Connacht won by 21 points, which was almost exactly where the handicap had settled.
I didn’t get involved from a betting perspective.
Edinburgh 31 Lions 10
This was my biggest bet on Friday night and also made it into the newsletter.
Edinburgh started at -7.5, and I had a feeling the Lions might fall away during the second half. That is precisely how the game played out, with Edinburgh eventually pulling clear to deliver the handicap bet comfortably.
Bulls 34 Ulster 26
Ulster were backed from +17.5 to +15.5 and duly delivered for handicap backers despite making a very slow start and falling 21-0 behind.
My bet and my biggest play of the weekend, was Ulster over 3.5 tries. It looked a little concerning early on, but Ulster eventually found their attacking rhythm and scored the four tries required.
Stormers 52 Scarlets 40
The Stormers started as 22-point favourites, so Scarlets handicap backers collected comfortably in a hugely entertaining match.
The scores were level at 40-40 with only a few minutes remaining before the Stormers scored twice late on to secure the victory.
My bet was over 57.5 points, which arrived very comfortably.
Benetton 20 Glasgow Warriors 24
Benetton were +7.5 for this game, and the Admiral had suggested on Thursday night’s show that the value was with the home team on the handicap.
That proved a good call as Benetton pushed Glasgow all the way, although I didn’t get involved from a betting perspective.
Leinster 24 Munster 18
This proved to be my biggest disappointment of the weekend.
I backed Munster under 13.5 points (the weather was nowhere as bad as I was expecting), and they raced to 13 in no time. They remained on that score until the final move of the match, when a late try ruined the bet.
Leinster started as -16.5 favourites, so it was an excellent performance by Munster despite the defeat.
Ospreys 31 Dragons 14
The total-points line for this game was incredibly low at 36.5, with plenty of rain forecast.
I would probably have played the overs, but this match kicked off while Leinster v Munster was still being played, so I never ended up getting involved.
The Ospreys comfortably covered the -7.5 handicap.
Overall, it was a decent punting weekend for me. The Edinburgh handicap and Ulster try bets were the highlights, while Munster’s final-play try was the main disappointment.
Table update
Edinburgh remain top of the table with 19 points after winning all four of their matches. Glasgow Warriors are one point behind in second place.
The Bulls and Stormers occupy third and fourth respectively on 16 points, while the Sharks are fifth with 15. Leinster have climbed to sixth on 13 points, with the Ospreys and Connacht completing the top eight.
Munster sit just outside the playoff places in ninth on 10 points. The Lions are 11th with nine points, while Zebre remain at the bottom of the table with two.
Round 5 fixtures
Friday 30 October
Connacht v Leinster – 21:45 SAST, Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Glasgow Warriors v Lions – 21:45 SAST, Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Saturday 31 October
Stormers v Ulster – 14:45 SAST, DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Bulls v Scarlets – 17:00 SAST, Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Benetton v Edinburgh – 17:00 SAST, Stadio Monigo, Treviso
Munster v Sharks – 19:30 SAST, Thomond Park, Limerick
Dragons v Zebre – 19:30 SAST, Rodney Parade, Newport
Ospreys v Cardiff – 21:45 SAST, St Helen’s, Swansea
I’ll be back later today or early on Monday morning with my handicap projections for Round 5.