Betting Update
Posted 05 Oct 14h31
Zebre have been backed into favourite and Lions now on offer at 23/20 on the ML
BET: Zebre v Lions
Posted 05 Oct 11h14
3 units Lions win at 0.97/1 at BetXchange.
Punters seem divided on this one and I respect the fact that Zebre are no pushovers at home these days. That said, I like the team the Lions have selected and I’ll back them to get the W. I capped this game at Lions -5.5 and they are -1.5 so going to go with my original read on this one.
The total points line is 50.5 and conditions look decent. If pushed, I’d lean overs, but aside from Loftus, my points bets haven’t gone too well this week. I’ll stick with the moneyline play here.
DOUBLE: Benetton v Glasgow, Munster v Cardiff
Posted 04 Oct 11h52
2 units double – over 46.5 points in Benetton v Glasgow and over 47.5 points in Munster v Cardiff at 2.55 at Betxchange
Conditions look fine in Treviso and I was always lining up an overs play there, with both teams capable of running in tries. In Limerick, Cardiff’s attacking style should help open things up and I can see points on both sides.
I’ll take the overs double across these two fixtures.
BET: Bulls v Leinster
Posted 04 Oct 11h42
4 units over 56.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets.
I’m a little surprised to be getting a line of 56.5 after last week’s high-scoring match against the Ospreys, but Leinster are generally strong defensively which has probably kept the cap in check. I was tempted by a Bulls -7.5 play, but I can’t resist this points line.
Conditions should be cool but hopefully dry at Loftus, and with both sides capable of running in tries, I’m backing a game that clears the total.
Betting Update
Posted 04 Sep 07h25
Last night was disappointing especially the Sharks spineless 2nd half display against the Dragons. I didn't go large on either game but it is never nice coming into Saturday behind the bookies.
The other disappointment was the Edinburgh game being postponed due to weather and the Connacht game today is also off.
Looking ahead here is the latest betting
Bulls -6.5 v Leinster - waiting to see points lines
Benetton +2.5 v Glasgow - very little feel at the moment
Munster -12.5 v Cardiff
Zebre +0.5 v Lions
I will be back with a few bets later today
Stoppage Time
BET: Dragons v Sharks
Posted 03 Oct 09h47
2 units Sharks win by 1–12 points at 6/4 at Sportingbet
There has been money for the Dragons, with the handicap moving in from +4.5 to +0.5, making this virtually a choice game. The Sharks are missing plenty of players, but they still field a decent team, and I thought they were a bit unlucky with the final scoreline against Glasgow.
The points line is 42.5 with conditions likely to be poor, so I expect a tight game, but the Sharks to edge it.
BET: Edinburgh v Ulster
Posted 03 Oct 09h03
4 units Edinburgh -5.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets.
Edinburgh were poor last week, but they have loaded their side for their first home match, and I would be surprised if -5.5 is still available by kickoff. The weather looks awful for this one, but the bookies have noted it with a low points line of 42.5.
I wasn’t planning on getting involved here due to the clash with the SA fixtures, but I am warming to the Edinburgh minus.
BET: Stormers v Ospreys
Posted 03 Oct 08h21
3 units Ospreys +14.5 at 0.92/1 at Betxchange
This handicap is currently Stormers -13.5 or -14.5 depending on your bookie. It opened -15.5, so there has been some support for the visitors. The Stormers were excellent against Leinster last week, but I was impressed with the Ospreys as well and reckon they will have targeted this game at the start of their tour.
I’m going to back the Ospreys to stay within two scores. The points line is 55.5 and with good weather expected, this could easily turn into an overs game, but for now I’ll stick with the handicap play.
Weather, Teams and Latest Betting
Posted 02 Oct 12h15-12h37
Here are the current forecasts and latest handicaps and we will also add teams below the fixtures. Punters please note the revised kickoff time for the Edinburgh match.
Stormers v Ospreys – DHL Stadium, Cape Town, Friday 3 Oct, 19:00 SAST
Handicap: Stormers -13.5 (was -15.5)
Weather in Cape Town: Cloudy but dry, humidity mid 50's, Temp 19 degrees [click here for updates]
Stormers: 15 Wandisile Simelane, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel (captain), 12 Dan du Plessis, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Jurie Matthee, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Connor Evans, 6 Marcel Theunissen, 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Adré Smith, 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Ali Vermaak, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Ruben van Heerden, 20 Ben-Jason Dixon, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Stefan Ungerer, 23 Clinton Swart.
Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Phil Cokanasiga, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 James Ratti, 5 Huw Sutton, 4 Rhys Davies, 3 Rhys Henry, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Lewis Lloyd, 17 Cam Jones, 18 Tom Botha, 19 James Fender, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Tom Florence, 23 Lestyn Hopkins.
Edinburgh v Ulster – Hive Stadium, Edinburgh, Friday 3 Oct, 21:05 20h00 SAST
Handicap: Edinburgh -4.5 (was -5.5)
Weather in Edinburgh: Overcast, rain and wind forecast, humidity high 80's, Temp mid teens [click here for updates]
Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Piers O’Conor, 12 James Lang, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Ben Healy, 9 Ben Vellacott, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 D’arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Paddy Harrison, 17 James Whitcombe, 18 Angus Williams, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Freddy Douglas, 21 Charlie Shiel, 22 Findlay Thomson, 23 Harry Paterson.
Ulster: 15 Stewart Moore, 14 Werner Kok, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Zack Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 Nick Timoney, 7 Sean Reffell, 6 Cormac Izuchukwu, 5 Harry Sheridan, 4 Iain Henderson (captain), 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Tom Stewart, 1 Callum Reid.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Sam Crean, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 David McCann, 20 Juarno Augustus, 21 Conor McKee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Jude Postlethwaite.
Dragons v Sharks – Rodney Parade, Newport, Friday 3 Oct, 21:05 SAST
Handicap: Dragons +2.5 (was +4.5)
Weather in Newport: Overcast, rain, humidity in 90's, windy, temp around 17 degrees [click here for updates]
Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien (co-captain), 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Harrison Keddie, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Ben Carter (co-captain), 4 Matthew Screech, 3 Rob Hunt, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Wyn Jones.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Rodrigo Martinez, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Levi Douglas, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Che Hope, 22 Fine Inisi, 23 Huw Anderson.
Sharks: 15 Edwill van der Merwe, 14 Phiko Sobahle, 13 Jurenzo Julius, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 11 Christie Grobbelaar, 10 Jean Smith, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Vincent Tshituka (captain), 7 Manu Tshituka, 6 Phepsi Buthelezi, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Deon Slabbert, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Fez Mbatha, 1 Simphiwe Matanzima.
Replacements: 16 Eduan Swart, 17 Cameron Dawson, 18 Cebo Dlamini, 19 Bathobele Hlekani, 20 Nick Hatton, 21 Ross Braude, 22 Francois Venter, 23 Hakeem Kunene
Connacht v Scarlets – Dexcom Stadium, Galway, Saturday 4 Oct, 14:45 SAST
Handicap: Connacht -9.5 (was -9.5)
Weather in Galway: Cold (around 8 degrees), high wind, rain (light) and humidity late 70's [click here for updates]
Benetton v Glasgow – Stadio Comunale di Monigo, Treviso, Saturday 4 Oct, 18:30 SAST
Handicap: Benetton +2.5 (was +3.5)
Weather in Treviso: Overcast but dry, humidity in early 60's, temp 17 degree [click here for updates]
Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Paolo Odogwu, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 So’otala Fa’aso’o, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Alessandro Izekor, 5 Eli Snyman, 4 Riccardo Favretto, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Siua Maile, 1 Mirco Spagnolo.
Replacements: 16 Nicholas Gasperini, 17 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 18 Giosué Zilocchi, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Lorenzo Cannone, 21 Louis Werchon, 22 Giuliano Avaca, 23 Rhyno Smith.
Glasgow Warriors: Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Kyle Steyn (c), 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Kyle Rowe, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 Jamie Dobie, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Macenzzie Duncan, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Alex Samuel, 4 Jare Oguntibeju, 3 Fin Richardson, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Patrick Schickerling, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Scott Cummings, 21 Euan Ferrie, 22 George Horne, 23 Dan Lancaster.
Bulls v Leinster – Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, Saturday 4 Oct, 18:30 SAST
Handicap: Bulls -7.5 (was -8.5)
Weather in Pretoria: Dry, clear, some wind, temp mid 20's, humidity in 30's [click here for updates]
Bulls: 15 Devon Williams, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Keagan Johannes, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 JJ Theron, 7 Mpilo Gumede, 6 Marcell Coetzee (captain), 5 JF van Heerden, 4 Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Juann Else, 17 Alulutho Tshakweni, 18 Francois Klopper, 19 Sintu Manjezi, 20 Nama Xaba, 21 Zak Burger, 22 Stedman Gans, 23 Willie le Roux.
Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Hugh Cooney, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Andrew Osborne, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Luke McGrath (captain), 8 Max Deegan, 7 Will Connors, 6 Alex Soroka, 5 Ryan Baird, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Gus McCarthy, 1 Paddy McCarthy.
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Diarmuid Mangan, 20 Scott Penny, 21 James Culhane, 22 Fintan Gunne, 23 Ciarán Frawley.
Munster v Cardiff – Thomond Park, Limerick, Saturday 4 Oct, 20:45 SAST
Handicap: Munster -11.5 (was -11.5)
Weather in Limerick: clear and cool (temp 8 degrees), humidity late 70's, some wind [click here for updates]
Munster: 15 Ben O’Connor, 14 Shane Daly, 13 Dan Kelly, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Thaakir Abrahams, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Ethan Coughlan, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Ruadhán Quinn, 6 Tom Ahern, 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Niall Scannell (captain), 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Diarmuid Barron, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Ronan Foxe, 19 Jack O’Donoghue, 20 Brian Gleeson, 21 Paddy Patterson, 22 Tony Butler, 23 Seán O’Brien.
Cardiff: 15 Jacob Beetham, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Rory Jennings, 11 Tom Bowen, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Johan Mulder, 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Dan Thomas, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Teddy Williams, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Javan Sebastian, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Danny Southworth.
Replacements: 16 Daf Hughes, 17 Rhys Barratt, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Ben Donnell, 20 Taine Basham, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Steff Emanuel.
Zebre v Lions – Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma, Sunday 5 Oct, 16:00 SAST
Handicap: Zebre +1.5 (was +1.5)
Weather in Parma: Overcast but dry, temp approx 17 degrees, humidity early 70's [click here for updates]
Zebre Parma: 15 Giovanni Montemauri, 14 Mirko Belloni, 13 Giulio Bertaccini, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Muhamed Hasa, 7 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 6 Ion Neculai, 5 Alessandro Ortombina, 4 Leonard Krumov (captain), 3 Samuele Locatelli, 2 Bautista Stavile, 1 Davide Ruggeri.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Juan Pitinari, 18 Matteo Nocera, 19 Guido Volpi, 20 Giacomo Ferrari, 21 Thomas Dominguez, 22 Marco Zanon, 22 Martin Roger Farias
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Eduan Keyter, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Richard Kriel, 11 Angelo Davids, 10 Chris Smith, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Renzo du Plessis, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 RF Schoeman, 2 Franco Marais, 1 SJ Kotze.
Replacements: 16 Morne Brandon, 17 Heiko Pohlmann, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 WJ Steenkamp, 21 Haashim Pead, 22 Lubabalo Dobela, 23 Rynhardt Jonker.
Handicap Comparison
Posted 29 Sep 19h15
Here is how the current handicaps in brackets compare to mine
Friday, 3 October 2025
Stormers -17.5 (-15.5) v Ospreys
Dragons +6.5 (+4.5) v Sharks
Edinburgh -3.5 (-5.5) v Ulster
Saturday, 4 October 2025
Connacht -12.5 (-9.5) v Scarlets
Zebre +5.5 (+1.5) v Lions
Bulls -23.5 (-8.5) v Leinster
Benetton +4.5 (+3.5) v Glasgow
Munster -9.5 (-11.5) v Cardiff
All of them within 4 points with one glaring exception the Bulls v Leinster game. I will do some homework on this one as had assumed Leinster will be fielding a similar team to what they did against the Stormers but the betting suggests not.
EARY WEEK 2 HANDICAPS
Posted 29 Sep 17:30
Stormers -16.5 v Ospreys
Dragons +4.5 v Sharks
Edinburgh -5.5 v Ulster
Connacht - 9.5 v Scarlets
Bulls -8.5 v Leinster
Benetton +3.5 v Glasgow
Munster -11.5 v Cardiff
Zebre +1.5 v Lions
WEEK 2 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 29 Sep 00h55
Here are my handicap projections which will be compared to the bookies.
Friday, 3 October 2025
Stormers -17.5 v Ospreys
Dragons +6.5 v Sharks
Edinburgh -3.5 v Ulster
Saturday, 4 October 2025
Connacht -12.5 v Scarlets
Zebre +5.5 v Lions
Bulls -23.5 v Leinster
Benetton +4.5 v Glasgow
Munster -9.5 v Cardiff
URC Week 1 Betting Review
BET: Stormers v Leinster
1 unit Stormers win at 75/20 at WSB.
➡️ Result: Stormers 35–0 Leinster ✅
A nice stress free start as the Stormers dominated Leinster despite starting +9.5
BET: Glasgow Warriors v Sharks
3 units over 52.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet.
➡️ Result: Glasgow 35–19 Sharks (54 points) ✅
We had to seat for the overs and it landed late
NO BET: Ulster v Dragons
Stayed out. Lean was over 52.5
➡️ Result: Ulster 42–21 Dragons (63 points) (would have been an overs winner).
BET: Bulls v Ospreys
5 units over 56.5 points at 10/11 at Hollywoodbets.
➡️ Result: Bulls 53–40 Ospreys (93 points) ✅
I could not get this bet down quick enough and it arrived with ease
LEAN: Zebre v Edinburgh
Leaning Edinburgh 1–12.
➡️ Result: Zebre 31–28 Edinburgh ❌
No damage and the 1-12 just missed
LEAN: Scarlets v Munster
Leaning Munster 1–12.
➡️ Result: Munster 34–21 Scarlets ❌ (margin was 13).
Gee I was unlucky with the 1-12 treble - 2 of the games finishing on 13 points
LEAN: Connacht v Benetton
Leaning Connacht 1–12.
➡️ Result: Connacht 26–15 Benetton ✅
Money came for Benetton with cap moving +7.5 to +5.5 but the home team prevailed
BET: Cardiff v Lions
4 units Cardiff -6.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets.
➡️ Result: Cardiff 33–20 Lions ✅
This was a battle and the Lions led early in the 2nd half. An important winner for my weekend.
BET: Treble – 1–12 Winning Margins (Edinburgh, Munster, Connacht)
1 unit treble at 13/1 at Sportingbet.
➡️ Result: Edinburgh ❌, Munster ❌, Connacht ✅ ❌
