URC Week 3 Betting Blog

We take a look the the week 3 URC fixtures from a betting angle and also take a look back at how the blog fared in week 2

A nice comeback 

Posted 12 Oct 00h11

The Sharks failing to cover the +21.5 handicap was a disappointment but over all Saturday was a good one hitting overs in Benetton v Lions, the 3/1 winning margin in Ospreys v Zebre, Dragons u16.5, Cardiff 1-12 at 6/4 and Ulster to win at 31/20 

The week 4 blog including the week 3 wrap and handicap projections will be out Sunday morning 

BET: Ulster v Bulls

Posted 11 Oct 18h11

2 units Ulster win at 31/20 with Betxchange
1 unit Bulls/Ulster Halftime/Fulltime at 7.80/1 with Betxchange

This handicap opened at Bulls -3.5, drifted out to -6.5 in places, but has since shortened back to -3.5. I was hoping for a bigger price on Ulster before getting involved, but I’ll still have an interest.

The points line has moved up from 50.5 to 52.5 and if anything I would lean unders. I’m backing Ulster to come through for the win, and also taking a small play on the Bulls to start strong before Ulster fight back to close it out.

BET: Cardiff v Connacht

Posted 11 Oct 18h08

2 units Cardiff win by 1–12 points at 6/4 with Sportingbet.

The handicap has been stable at Cardiff -4.5 all week and looks well set. The points line is 52.5 and, if pushed, I would lean towards a high-scoring game. That said, I’ll be focused on Ulster v Bulls, so I just want a small interest here.

This should be a competitive clash, and I’ll back the home side to edge it by a narrow margin.

BET: Glasgow v Dragons

Posted 11 Oct 15h41

3 units Dragons under 16.5 points at 9/10 with Pokerbet.

The handicap opened at Glasgow -23.5 and held steady until team news, when it moved to -29.5 after the Dragons rotated heavily. It has since edged back to -28.5, with the total points line sitting at 58.5.

There’s no rain expected, but humidity is in the 90s, and in those conditions I often lean towards unders on the underdog. Dragons points are quoted at 13.5 in some places, but Pokerbet are offering 16.5, which looks good enough for me.

BET: Ospreys v Zebre

Posted 11 Oct 11h58

1 unit Ospreys to win by 21–30 points inclusive at 3/1 with BetXchange.

The handicap has shifted from Ospreys -15.5 to -19.5 on team news, with Zebre making changes after two home wins. The Ospreys impressed me at times in South Africa and I think they cover the spread.

That said, I’m mainly looking for a small interest here, so I’ll take a shot at the winning margin market. Total points is set at 55.5, which looks about right to me.

Saturday bets to follow

Posted 11 Oct 09h37 

Not a great Friday night with the overs in Wales never a runner. I have no idea how Edinburgh didn't beat Munster though that was a pity 

Got a few chores to run and bets (or no bets) for the remaining games to follow 

BET: Leinster v Sharks

Posted 10 Oct 18h03

4 units Sharks +21.5 at 19/20 with Hollywoodbets

I missed the early +26.5, but like the bookies I was expecting Leinster to field a stronger side. The Sharks will find it tough to win, but with the team they have selected I think they can stay within three scores.

The points line is 53.5 and for now I don’t have a firm view on that market.

BET: Benetton v Lions

Posted 10 Oct 17h48

3 units over 46.5 points at 9/10 with Pokerbet

Benetton are currently trading at -10.5 on most books, which feels about right even though my own cap had the Lions closer to -6.5. Instead of the handicap, I’m getting involved in the points market at 46.5.

The weather looks good and with the early kickoff I’m expecting an open game. The only slight concern is the state of the pitch, which looked poor last week, but I’m banking on it not being too much of a hindrance.

Market Moves 

Posted 10 Oct 16h43

We have virtually all team news (see further down the page) and are just waiting for Zebre. 

There has been some betting movement and we also have points lines - a summary of the movements below 

My weekly betting newsletter will be sent shortly - sign up here 

Scarlets v Stormers

• Previous: Scarlets +4.5 | Points n/a

• Current: Scarlets +7.5 | Points: 49.5

📉 Big move towards Stormers (line out 3 points). Total points now set.

Munster v Edinburgh

• Previous: Munster -8.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Munster -7.5 | Points: 49.5

📈 Money for Edinburgh, handicap trimmed a point having opened -10.5 Munster. Totals added.

Benetton v Lions

• Previous: Benetton -9.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Benetton -10.5 | Points: 46.5

📉 Benetton pushed a point firmer favourite. Totals relatively low at 46.5, probably given the condition of the pitch last week.

Ospreys v Zebre

• Previous: Ospreys -15.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Ospreys -18.5 | Points: 55.5

📉 Ospreys firmed strongly in market (3 points). Points line set high.

Leinster v Sharks

• Previous: Leinster -26.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Leinster -21.5 | Points: 53.5

📈 Sharks money — big 5-point move in their favour as Leinster go weaker than expected. Totals set at 53.5.

Glasgow v Dragons

• Previous: Glasgow -23.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Glasgow -29.5 | Points: 58.5

📉 Strong support for Glasgow, line blown out 6 points as Dragons "manage their squad". 

Cardiff v Connacht

• Previous: Cardiff -4.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Cardiff -4.5 | Points: 52.5

➡️ No handicap change. Totals added at 52.5.

Ulster v Bulls

• Previous: Ulster +5.5 | Points: n/a

• Current: Ulster +6.5 | Points: 50.5

📉 Slight Bulls support, Ulster get another point but that is 3 points in total since the early lines came out. Totals 50.5.

✅ In summary:

• Biggest moves: Leinster drift (–26.5 to –21.5), Glasgow smash (–23.5 to –29.5), Scarlets pushed out (+4.5 to +7.5).

BET: Munster v Edinburgh

Posted 10 Oct 10h10

2 units Edinburgh win at 3/1 at WSB

There has been steady support for the visitors this week. Early on, +10.5 was available, but the market has since moved, with +7.5 currently on offer.

The total points line is 49.5. Rain looks unlikely, though it will be cold and there’s even a chance of fog in Limerick.

I was tempted to go Edinburgh over 20.5 and may yet add this but I will be watching the Stormers game, so in true Oracle fashion I’m keeping it simple and taking some of the 3/1 on Edinburgh to pull off the upset.

BET: Scarlets v Stormers

Posted 10 Oct 08h56

3 units Over 47.5 points at 0.87/1 at WSB - WSB have launched their new website and while some markets are still coming across, but visually it looks good to me

Money has come for the Stormers with the early -4.5 now drifting as high as -6.5 in places. This follows the Stormers naming a strong team with a few Boks included, while the Scarlets, by contrast, are dealing with injury concerns.

I was initially lining up a Scarlets play, but the sentiment that their pack could be bullied has me focusing on the points line instead. Both backlines look full of running, and with decent conditions expected, I’ll have a stab at overs 47.5 points.

Team News, Weather and Latest Handicaps 

Posted 09 Oct 07h29

Friday 

Munster v Edinburgh
Handicap: Munster -8.5
Weather in Limerick: Cool at 10 degrees, humidity 90%, dry but could be fog 

Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Seán O’Brien, 11 Andrew Smith, 10 JJ Hanrahan, 9 Paddy Patterson, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Ruadhán Quinn, 6 Jack O’Donoghue, 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Diarmuid Barron (captain), 1 Michael Milne.
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 John Ryan, 19 Edwin Edogbo, 20 Brian Gleeson, 21 Ethan Coughlan, 22 Tony Butler, 23 Dan Kelly.

Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Piers O’Conor, 12 James Lang, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Ben Healy, 9 Ben Vellacott, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Dylan Richardson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Sam Skinner, 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 D’arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Paddy Harrison, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Gl

Scarlets v Stormers
Handicap: Scarlets +4.5
Weather in Llanelli: Temp in early teens, cloudy but should be dry, humidity 85-90%

Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Johnny Williams (captain), 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Joe Hawkins, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Dan Davis, 6 Jarrod Taylor, 5 Max Douglas, 4 Tristan Davies, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Marnus van der Merwe, 1 Alec Hepburn.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Sam O’Connor, 18 Archer Holz, 19 Steve Cummins, 20 Ben Williams, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Macs Page.

Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Wandisile Simelane, 12 Ruhan Nel (captain), 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 JD Schickerling, 3 Sazi Sandi, 2 JJ Kotzé, 1 Ali Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 André-Hugo Venter, 17 Vernon Matongo, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Connor Evans, 20 Marcel Theunissen, 21 Deon Fourie, 22 Imad Khan, 23 Jurie Matthee.

Saturday 

Benetton v Lions
Handicap: Benetton -9.5
Weather in Treviso: Clear and Sunny, around 19 degrees, humidity mid 60's (pitch was in poor condition last week)

Benetton:15 Rhyno Smith, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Louis Werchon, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Alessandro Izekor, 5 Eli Snyman, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Siua Maile, 1 Mirco Spagnolo
Replacements: 16 Bautista Bernasconi, 17 Thomas Gallo, 18 Giosué Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 John Bryant, 21 Andy Uren, 22 Giuliano Avaca, 23 Filippo Drago

Lions:15 Quan Horn, 14 Eduan Keyter, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Richard Kriel, 11 Angelo Davids, 10 Chris Smith, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Ruan Venter, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Franco Marais, 1 SJ Kotze
Replacements: 16 Morne Brandon, 17 RF Schoeman, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Jarod Cairns, 21 Nico Steyn, 22 Sam Francis, 23 Manuel Rass

Ospreys v Zebre
Handicap: Ospreys -15.5
Weather in Bridgend: Mid teens, cloudy, humidity in 70's, dry 

Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Phil Cokanasiga, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Morgan Morse, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Ross Moriarty, 5 Huw Sutton, 4 James Ratti, 3 Tom Botha, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Lewis Lloyd, 17 Garyn Phillips, 18 Ben Warren, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 James Fender, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Tom Florence, 23 Iestyn Hopkins

Zebre Parma: TBC

Leinster v Sharks
Handicap: Leinster -26.5
Weather in Dublin: Overcast but dry, temp early teens, humidity in 70's 

Leinster: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Jimmy O’Brien, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Ciarán Frawley, 11 James Lowe, 10 Harry Byrne, 9 Fintan Gunne, 8 Max Deegan, 7 Josh van der Flier (captain), 6 Alex Soroka, 5 Ryan Baird, 4 Brian Deeny, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Paddy McCarthy
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Diarmuid Mangan, 20 James Culhane, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Hugh Cooney, 23 Joshua Kenny

Sharks: 15 Edwill van der Merwe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jurenzo Julius, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Jean Smith, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Vincent Tshituka (captain), 7 Emmanuel Tshituka, 6 Phepsi Buthelezi, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Fez Mbatha, 1 Simphiwe Matanzima
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Dian Bleuler, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Bathobele Hlekani, 20 Nick Hatton, 21 Ross Braude, 22 Siya Masuku, 23 Francois Venter

Glasgow v Dragons
Handicap: Glasgow -23.5
Weather in Glasgow: Overcast but dry, temp early teens, humidity in 70's 

Glasgow: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Kyle Steyn (captain), 13 Ollie Smith, 12 Sione Tuipoluto, 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Euan Ferrie, 7 Macenzzie Duncan, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Fin Richardson, 2 Gregor Hiddleston, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Patrick Schickerling, 18 Musphy Walker, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Max Williamson, 21 Angus Fraser, 22 Ben Afshar, 23 Dan Lancaster

Dragons: 15 Huw Anderson, 14 Fine Inisi, 13 Andeurin Owen, 12 Harri Ackerman, 11 David Richards, 10 Jac Lloyd, 9 Che Hope, 8 Mackenzie Martin, 7 Harrison Keddie (captain), 6 Ryan Woodman, 5 Seb Davies, 4 Levi Douglas, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Oli Burrows, 1 Rodrigo Martinez
Replacements: 16 James Benjamin, 17 Dylan Kelleher-Griffiths, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Matthew Screech, 20 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 21 Niall Armstrong, 22 tinus de beer, 23 Rio Dyer

Cardiff v Connacht
Handicap: Cardiff -4.5
Weather in Cardiff: Overcast but dry, temp early teens, humidity in early 80's 

Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett; 14 Jacob Beetham, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Steff Emanuel, 11 Tom Bowen; 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Johan Mulder; 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Dan Thomas, 6 Ben Donnell, 5 Teddy Williams, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Danny Southworth
Replacements: 16 Daf Hughes, 17 Rhys Barratt, 18 Javan Sebastian, 19 George Nott, 20 Taine Basham, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Osian Darwin-Lewis

Connacht: 15 Sean Naughton, 14 Chay Mullins, 13 David Hawkshaw, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Shayne Bolton, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Ben Murphy, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Cian Prendergast (captain), 5 Joe Joyce, 4 Darragh Murray, 3 Jack Aungier, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Denis Buckley
Replacements: 16 Eoin de Buitléar, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Sam Illo, 19. David O’Connor, 20 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 21 Matthew Devine, 22 Hugh Gavin, 23 Finn Treacy

Ulster v Bulls
Handicap: Ulster +5.5
Weather in Belfast: Overcast but dry, temp around 10 degrees, humidity in early 90's 

Ulster: 15 Jacob Stockdale,14 Rob Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Zac Ward, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 David McCann, 5 Cormac Izuchukwu, 4 Iain Henderson (captain), 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Sam Crean
Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Eric O’Sullivan, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Harry Sheridan, 20 Sean Reffell, 21 Conor Mckee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Jude Postlethwaite

Bulls: 15 Devon Williams, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Zak Burger, 8 Jeandre Rudolph, 7 Mpilo Gumede, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Nicolaas Janse v Rensburg, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johann Grobbelaar (captain), 1 Gerhard Steenekamp
Replacements: 16 Juann Else, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Mornay Smith, 19 Reinhardt Ludwig, 20 Nama Xaba, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 David Kriel, 23 Willie le Roux

Bookies handicaps are out 

Leinster are clearly going full strength for the Sharks and no argument with that handicap

I think I got the Zebre cap wrong although like them on the plus

I am a bit surprised to see the Bulls as favourites in Ulster and am going to mull over and early ML bet 

Likewise on the Scarlets game, I think they an beat the Stormers at home