The Uefa Champions League group stage concludes on Wednesday and our focus is on Group F where Dortmund host PSG and Newcastle are at home to AC Milan
Group F
Dortmund top this group with 10 points and are already assured of a place in the knockout rounds. PSG have 7 points and Newcastle and AC Milan have 5 and any 1 of those 3 sides can still make it through.
Dortmund 28/10 Draw 29/10 PSG 9/10
Although Dortmund are through they still need a point to be sure of topping the group and in theory increase the chances of a more favourable draw in the last 16. They failed to score in their first 2 group matches, a 2-0 defeat away to PSG and a 0-0 draw at home to Milan. Back to back wins against Newcastle, 1-0 away and 2-0 at home followed by a 3-1 win in Milan on Matchday 5 have turned things around. Dortmund are currently fifth in the Bundesliga and they have won just 1 of their last 6 league games.
PSG had to scramble for a 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle on Matchday 5 with Mbappe equalizing with a 98th minute penalty. They also beat Milan 3-0 in Paris, victory here would see them finish top of the group but they have lost both their away fixtures so far, 4-1 at Newcastle and 2-1 in Milan.
PSG are currently 4 points clear of Nice at the top of Ligue 1. They have lost just 1 league game all season and have won 9 and drawn 1 of their last 10.
The Verdict:
PSG have let me down in both their away fixtures so far and Dortmund are targeting the point they need to top the group. It's very possible 1 goal might not be enough for PSG and I quite like the away team multigoals of 2-3 which is an even money shot.
Bets: Multigoal away team 2-3 at even money with BetXchange
Newcastle 17/20 Draw 29/10 AC Milan 3/1
The 4-1 home win over PSG and the 1-1 draw in Paris represent Newcastle's best form in the group. They began with a 0-0 draw in Milan but the 2 defeats to Dortmund mean their chances of a last 16 spot are no longer in their own hands as victory here will only take them through if PSG fail to win in Dortmund. Third spot would secure a shot at the Europa League. Wilson and Longstaff came off the bench in a 4-1 defeat in the EPL at Spurs on Sunday, signs that a crippling injury crisis is beginning to ease. Newcastle have managed to maintain and excellent home record in the EPL (7 wins, 1 defeat) but poor away form has seen them slip to seventh, 7 points off a top 4 spot.
AC Milan are facing a similar equation to Newcastle in as much as they need to win this match but given their head to head record with PSG they also need PSG to lose in Dortmund. Milan failed to score in their first 3 group matches, a pair of 0-0 draws and a 3-0 defeat in Paris before they turned the tables on PSG with that 3-1 victory in Milan. Defeat at home to Dortmund sees Milan as the outsiders of the trio hoping to join Dortmund in the last 16.
In Serie A Milan are in third spot but all of 7 points behind Juve and 9 behind league leaders Inter.
The Verdict:
Newcastle looked to be running on empty at Spurs on Sunday and it remains to be seen whether they are able to start this game with some fresh pairs of legs.
They put up a terrific effort in Paris when they were also way below full strength and they need one big push here.
I'll play the circumstances of what both teams require and look for both teams to score in a game of 3 goals or more in total.
Bets: Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals? Yes at 9/10 with BetXchange
Note, prices quoted are subject to change
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