All Racing Tips w/c 26th October

Feature season on the Highveld and in the Western Cape is upon with this weekend seeing the Grade 2 Charity Mile, a couple of Grade 3 events and some listed races at Turffontein on Saturday and 2 more features when racing returns to Kenilworth on Sunday.

In midweek we have Durbanville on Wednesday, Vaal on Thursday and the Friday double header of Fairview and Greyville.

Grateful for all your input for what should be a cracking start to the season proper.

Thanks Chris. Looking forward to the feature season and will try to be more active on the forum with the bets.

Been keeping an eye while not betting much and pleased to see how well you, JT, South, KT and Coil are doing 

I wanted to get your guys opinion before racing gets underway later this week.

How do you handle your backed horse drifting?
Do you back it again at bigger odds before race time?
Or do you hedge/leave it alone as you are then worried about the drift and bookies knowing something that punters don't?

Hey Vin, many thanks, yeah we have a quality core of racing punters on here, there is always someone in form and the more the merrier for the season ahead.

Regarding drifters I've had a couple recently that more than trebled in price and won. I do respect money whether its horses shortening or drifting but personally I would tend to leave it alone and just accept the situation rather than hedge or top up. I guess if your watching and your horse is misbehaving or goes down to the start badly then the sensible option would be to take some cover but if all looks well then I wouldn't alter my position.

Onwards and upwards for the season to come mate

 

Hi Vin, thanks always trying my best. Some arrive, some still running

I think Chris summed it up well with regards to runners drifting. I also leave it, if it loses, it loses. There are days where the late money arrives, but I feel its just too risky for us following from far and becomes a guessing game to whether the money is spot on or not. Personally, if you like a horse, back it. Been put off many fancies due to positive comments for other runners and then my original fancy arrives. Nothing worse than being put off a horse because it drifted in price and then arrives in style. 

 

good to hear from you Vin!

i agree with chris and jt, i tend to just let it ride if a horse drifts, but if there's a horse i really fancied i will go and recheck my justification and sometimes i'll be even more convinced and have an additional nibble at a bigger price. Some yards i watch out for in this scenario, eg. Tarry drifters can often still win, whereas some smaller yards if their horses drift they often tend to run accordingly.

Thanks for the thoughts guys. I also agree with what all of you say, and prefer to let the bet ride. 

Looking forward to the big ones this weekend. Good to see that French jockey, Mickaelle Michel is back in SA, so will def need to add her horses in your plays, as she looks a class above many of our jockeys.

Agree Vin, big fan of Mickaelle, going with her in the first at Durbanville on Wednesday, some tricky little races mind you so small stakes and keep some ammo for the weekend. Could only find one roughie of interest.

Race 1 Stitchintime at 17/10, penny dropped later stages of debut running onto into 2nd, will know more today and jumps from gate 1 with an excellent 1.5kg claimer riding, early days for that form-line but could prove to be useful
Race 2 Tag And Release at 14/10. Useful juvenile form, 3rd run after gelding, back up to 1250 should suit, de Melo up
Race 4 Hero’s Journey at 9/4. Another with very useful juvenile form, getting plenty of weight from some rival today, good comeback run over 1250 here last time and won’t mind step up in trip
Race 5 Saachi One each way at 25/1. Wide gate to contend with but chance on a couple of collateral form lines, mark easing and a 4kg claimer
Race 8 October Rush at 9/10. Prominent in betting when green on debut, decent after 2nd run and should be spot on today, yard only has 2 runners on day and this one looks tough to beat


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Looks like a mostly favorites card at Durbanville today.

Race 1 - Tequila Tango (5/2) has bumped a few good ones thus far. Was drawn wide last two runs, drawn 2 today. Andrew Fortune up. Massive runner if repeats 2nd career run when behind Viva Asterix, African Wild Dog and Bullet Tooth Tony.

Race 2 - With Chris, Tag And Release (15/10) down in class, has everything going for him here. Golddust (4/1) meets stronger, but in excellent form since joining the Rix yard. EX 2x4

Race 3 - Jack A Dandy (6/1) full sister to Grade 1 placed, Feather Boa. Step up in trip should assist. Swingers with Gimme Perfect (28/10) who improved when going over this trip. Blinkers fitted. SW 2x7

Race 4 - Hero's Journey (5/2) looks the right one. Boogiefied (11/2), if fit, could be a big danger. Won last two at this track and went down by a whisker to Fox On The Run before that. Will throw a few swingers and exactas if can get any positive comments on Boogiefied. 

Race 5 - Sabre Wing (17/10) top last run when narrowly going down to Over My Shoulder. One that will win her races. 

Race 6 - Sossusvlei (17/10) heavily backed when winning maiden. 2nd and 4th in that race won their next starts. Will enjoy step up in trip. Only danger is Bourbon King (26/10) who won over this C&D with Andrew Fortune two starts back.

Race 7 - Wehaveasituation (17/10) goes extremely well for Manne with 3 wins, a 2nd and two 3rds in 6 starts. Down in class today. 

Race 8 - October Rush (8/10) should prove hard to beat. Oh So Onederful (22/10 top 3 places) found outside betting support last time. Repeat of earlier run behind Bonelli over a mile, should see him earn. 

All the Kotzen runners are expected to need the runs as per Perfectly Placed interview. I am keeping a close eye on them as well today, as there are a few proper runners who will win their races the next couple of months.

A couple of drifts helped us out there JT , nice call with Wehaveasituation and October Rush got the job done despite drifting to 18/10!!

On to Thursday at the Vaal (Classic) and try as I might I could only find two and one of those is a bit of a Hail Mary


Race 5 Onetwobucklemyshoe at 33/20. Least exposed of these runners with just 4 starts, bred to enjoy this longer trip, Godden’s only ride

Race 6 Sikeloi each way at 20/1. Went close 3 runs back when last seen in this grade and 1 point lower today, jumps from gate 3, not dismissed although return to best form will be required.

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Double header on Friday, here is my plays for Fairview (turf), looked tricky too me.


Race 5 Terminator each way at 10/1. All 3 wins from turf and should appreciate return to this surface, good record down at this trip and not dismissed down in grade
Race 6 Streisand at 7/1. Another who may benefit from return to turf after 2 no shows on poly. Down in grade and Zackey up
Race 7 Winter In London at 11/2. Fair ECP debut on poly when backed and when reported not striding out. Only win came on turf in KZN, should be involved off same mark well drawn with a 4kg claimer on top.
Race 8 Icy Lancaster each way at 25/2. Hasn’t won since relocating in April but all 8 of those runs were on poly. Now switched to turf, mark easing still and Yeni up

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Friday at Greyville to follow later today

thanks chris and JT.

Looked at card today, race 8, Skitt Smiling @ around 15/2 ew. On formlines he has a nice weight advantage to the top 2 on the board, although appie claim does level things out on one state swing. Just depends how much he will improve first run out maidens as de kock runner has beaten winners already, but think SS represents good ew value.

Friday at Greyville, interesting thing for me here is quite a few trainers have booked claimers for a few of these races and with some justification in my opinion when you look at their records so have included a couple in R7 and R8


Race 3 Slightly Mo at 9/2. Improved off a break last time stepped up to the mile and now tackles 2000m. de Melo rides despite putting up 0.5kg over which can be taken as a plus point, just a nibble with a worthy favourite to beat
Race 4 Miss Twinkle at 4/1. Renews rivalry with Grand Occasion and has something to find on last run. Was backed that day and started slow, other with chances but the selection can make amends
Race 5 Pretty Kara each way at 14/1. Didn’t have things go her way on the poly last time, turf form is consistent at this level and mark has eased. Comes out favourably with Silver Salute (challenging for favouritism here) on collateral form from May and August at Scottsville
Race 7 Cats Pajamas each way at 12.5/1. Top sort and 2nd best weighted on the day. 4kg claimer has 2 wins and 5 places from 11 rides at this track this season. Well drawn at 4.
Race 8 Cardinal Chief each way at 25/2 Down in trip and just touched off when last seen at1200m back in March. Has run creditably over further since, 4kg claimer has 1 win and 3 places from 6 rides for this trainer this season.
Race 9 Tuscan Romance at 4/1. Ran a cracker returning for first run since February. Takes on a couple of those again with a bit to find but drawn 1 here, sure to benefit from that first look at Greyville and will strip fitter. Big player


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Charity Mile day picks, super tough card by the look of it, came up with these.

Race 3 Chocolate Soldier each way at 10/1. Overdue return to form on inside track latest, this requires more but that run came off a break, Fourie up and drawn high likely another plus
Race 5 Sheriff Bill Brown each way at 16/1. Improving rapidly with every run and now seeking a 4 timer, Another step up so career best needed but fitness proven and in good hands
Race 6 Tomyris at 11/2. Backed and won with ease last time. This calls for more but that’s was first run for new yard off a break and she has drawn well at 4
Race 7 Zeitz at 11/2. Typically wide open Charity Mile but Zeitz holds a number of these on 2nd October run at Greyville over 1400 when returning from a break and drawn 12 / 12. No problem with the mile, first look at Turffontein a possible ? but looks primed for a big run.
Race 8 Curious Girl at 18/10. This 5 time winning filly (from 11 runs) can take it to the boys. Decent return off a break at Greyville last time, likely fitter today, drawn 1 with Murray up

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Trying one in the next race at Fairview

Race 3 - Definitely Yes (11/2 E/W) - Change of scenery and stables from Durban, performed under expectation last three runs. Tried mostly over 1200m but did place in 3 most recent runs over 1400m. Will enjoy the softer going. Favorite, Lady Elliot (5/2), brings strong recent Gauteng form to the race, but form suggests it needs firmer going.

Greyville Turf Friday

Race 1 - Queen's Bounty (11/10 top 4 places) starting to find some form. Not much between her, Chericherilady and Queraristinyferrari.

Race 2 - Floral Kingdom (4/1) ran 3 lengths behind Palace of Avernia as a juvenile in soft conditions at this track. Battling to shed her maiden tag but I don't see anything special in this field. Watch the betting on Four G's (9/1) who found betting support when unplaced on debut.

Race 3 - Clever Kid (9/10) had subsequent winners behind him in both starts to date. Finished 4l behind Bella Gallico, who looks above average, on debut. 

Race 4 - Swiatek (28/10) enjoys the softer going. Narrowly beaten by Flower Island over a touch shorter in a Gr2 a couple of weeks ago. Finished a neck behind Double Grand Slam over this distance just under a year ago. 

Race 5 - Silver Salute (28/10) has earned a stake cheque in all 7 starts over 1600m. Enjoys C&D. Two "worst runs" over this distance was at Scottsville. Did finish behind Vixen's War on the poly last time, but feel will be better on the turf.

Race 6 - Prized Possession (28/10) had excuses when finishing 4th behind Coast Of The Sun last time. Step up in trip should suit. Has the advantage of having raced at Greyville in softer conditions and under the lights. Healthy respect for Reign Man (19/10) who looks well above average. 

Race 7 - Position Of Power (28/10) is 3kgs worse off with Thisiswhatitmeans for a 1.5l beating but goes extremely well for Keegan de Melo who has won his last 5 starts on top of this Vercingetorix gelding. PoP is 19 points up in rating since May, but one can't ignore such a strike rate.

Race 8 - In The Red (20/1 e/w). Missed out on him when shedding his maiden last time out. Finished in front of Viking Leader as a juvenile and then took on some of the best juveniles in the country in Erik Dubois and Rich Mans World. Takes on some hard knockers and horses prepping for bigger things here. Could just sneak it with only 52.5kgs on his back.

Race 9 - Anushka (4/1) to finish off a de Melo treble on the evening. Not penalised when narrowly beaten by Averni Princess in similar going last time. Won her only start with de Melo up.

Friday was hard work until Pretty Kara arrived at Greyville. Last up for the week a ood card at Kenilworth on Sunday with a couple of features.


Race 1 Lilly Langtree at 9/2. Improved on first two efforts when running 2nd at Durbanville last time out and looks to be heading in the right direction. That form makes her worth a small play with so many debutants in the field.
Race 2 Cardinal King at 3/1. Unfancied but caught the eye on debut here over 1000m when slow away and green and followed up with a third to a useful one round the turn at Durbanville. That could prove to be the best form of the raced runners.
Race 3 Villeneuve at 18/10. Unfancied and green on debut but ran a reasonable race and favourably weighted with a number of reopposing rivals. Will know more today stepping up in trip
Race 6 Aqua Calidae at 9/4. Although Rich Man’s World has been scratched it’s a quality field. Selection improved with every run as a juvenile and has been lightly campaigned in WCP. Can reap the benefits of that approach this season.
Race 7 The US Of A at 3/1. Chances everywhere in a hot race but good second off a break last time and a C&D record of 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs plus Fourie in the irons tips the scales in this ones favour
Race 8 Trois Sept Huit at 3/1. Lightly raced 4yo backed and didn’t have run of race when 3rd beaten 0.5l off a break in a slightly stronger race last time. Should go close off same mark


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Some good calls this week guys, well played.

Turffontein - good luck with the selections today, it is a nice card!

Race 1 - Federico Cagishas EW @ 9/1 - Showed good signs in last start as he stayed on at the finish. This is more of a blinker strike, so hopefully should run well.

Race 2 - Piteraq EW @ 8/1 - Fair form and seems to always be right there in the money. Not the strongest of fields so could surprise here.

Race 3 - Trompe L'Oeil EW @ 13/1 - I thought he would kick on after his first few runs. However, imo he still looks progressive. Carries a low mass and on his best form, he could sneak this at a nice price.

Race 4 - Alice B Toklas EW @ 9/1 - Surely the value runner here. Think we getting this odds based on the two favs. However, she was always the low odds fav during KZN feature season. I think too much has been made of her last run. The 1600 was too much and she was distressed after that run. The time off may have done the trick. Hope she runs well fresh, but can't get hurt at this price for a good sort filly with a world class jockey on board.

Race 5 - Bisou Bisou EW @ 8/1 - Gets a nice weight turnaround from many of his rivals. From a good draw, I hope Zackey has him in a good postion and he should be running on.

Race 6 - Scarlet O'Hara EW @ 17/1 - Love the value on the filly. I don't think she saw out the 2200 last time. Dropping back to 1800 should do her good. She has a cracking record over this trip with 3 wins and a second from four starts.

Race 9 - Bristol Hercules EW @ 20/1 - I like the value with this one. His last run seemed too short for him but he did need that outing. Issue here is 2nd run after a rest syndrome but looks like he is being aimed at the Grand Heritage. With 1.5kgs taken off by Mickaelle, he comes in with virtually no weight. If he can beat the draw, he should be in contention. 

Frustrating night last night, Clever Kid nothing went right, was painful to watch from early in the race. Anuscka beaten a length, finishing outside the top 4. 

@Chris top pick with Pretty Cara winning at R16.70 on the tote and Tuscan Romance also going close.

Will post Turffontein soon. @Vin Naidoo some nice picks at decent prices. Looks a real competitive card.

Great thoughts guys. 

tied up with kids sports this morning so just a couple quick ones for me for now -

race 4 - in hot water @ 20/1 ew

race 5 - wild and free @ 40/1 ew

Ultra competitive card at Turffontein on Charity Mile Day. A great card to watch but not easy to punt. My thoughts:

Race 1 - Lots of talk and money for From Winter (7/1 in to 13/10). Doesn't have to be Pocket Power to win this race. Smoke and Shadows has also attracted money now from 7/1 in to 4/1. Follow all these first-timers in the near future as trainers normally enter their "better" horses in these R110 000 maiden races. 

Race 2 - Miss Barbados (36/10) found betting support when 4th on debut over 1200m at Scottsville. Should have come on a lot with the experience of that run. Drawn high which is a positive over the straight. Down 40m in trip the only question mark. Piteraq heavily backed from 10/1 in to 9/2. Best runs have been over 1000m. Form line of most recent run behind Matinee has been franked with Beautiful Rosie and Astrophile winning. Again follow these first timers over the next couple of months.

Race 3 - African Pride (16/1 E/W) enjoys C&D and is 2/2 with Mickaelle Michel. Down in class and won races with a higher AR than today recently. 0.3 lengths 3rd behind Cosmic Star and Taxi To The Moon in this race a year ago. Umzingeli Wenyathi (11/1) is another who enjoys C&D but takes on strongest to date. Has only 52kgs to shoulder, drawn on the "right side" of the track and in form jockey Jason Gates now takes the ride. Will be running at them at the end. Big field, SW 1X16

Race 4 - Secretary Bird (13/1 in to 15/2) took on the boys in KZN and certainly wasn't disgraced. Back against the fillies in an ultra competitive event where I find it very hard to split the Tarry runners. Richard Fourie jumps ship from Alice B Toklas (9/1) who won and placed over this distance in feature races in KZN . Griselda (15/1) is one I feel will be even better over todays 1400m trip and can't be ignored.

Race 5 - Again so many with chances. Bisou Bisou (7/1) extremely well weighted, Craig Zackey up but I've got my reservations over him being best over 1400m. Gimme A Fireball (10/1 E/W) jumps from pole position with in-form Tristan Godden in the irons. Should have won his last race easier and I feel he will get the 1400m. Noble Saint (10/1 in to 11/2) and Fierceness (10/1 in to 4/1) attracting massive betting support. Kings Mountain (15/2) drawn in the car park but has plenty of ability. Wild and Free (33/1) top 2nd behind Coast Of The Sun a couple of weeks ago. Draw 16/16 is the only concern. One I would follow in the Dingaans end of the month and next year during the Triple Crown. Again big field SW 13x15. Field sort of race for the P6

Race 6 - Indian Ocean (15/2 E/W) peak run after a rest. Positive weight swing with Into Dancing. Has also raced against stronger recently. Could be a nice double for Tristan Godden. Future Gamble (11/1) is 2/2 at this course with Mikaelle Michel in the irons. Out at the weights and toughest task to date.

Race 7 - Zeitz (9/2) extremely well weighted but tries the long uphill Turffontein straight for the first time. Had I Salute You (60/1 in to 40/1) been drawn better, I would have been all over him. 3 wins from 6 starts over a mile and holds Zeitz on their run behind Jet Force at the end of February. Mosaheb in the irons another big plus. Choisaanada (18/1 E/W) tired late behind Gladatorian last time out and should strip a fitter horse today. 2 wins from 5 runs over C&D. Cosmic Speed (13/1) has never missed a stake cheque with Craig Zackey in the irons and did finish 5th in the King's Plate from a wide draw. Dark horse! Isivivane (20/1 E/W) 2kgs better off with Zeitz for a 3 length beating on Gold Cup Day. Also first run at course but has better chance of staying up the hill. Apprentice Marx-Jacobson could follow up his double at Fairview yesterday in style. SW 1X18. Field for the P6. 

Race 8 - Curious Girl (13/10) a popular banker and looks hard to beat. Utsaah (4/1 top 3 places) strongest task to date but seems to be better the further she goes. SW 5x10

Race 9 - King Harald (15/4) peak run after a rest with the Candyman in the irons. Two good recent runs over this distance behind Errol Flynn and Calla Lagoon. Mastership (25/20 top 3 places) 1 win from 2 starts over C&D. Good 2nd behind I'm A Fireball last time out. Stenger yard is due and always one to follow this time of the year.

Race 10 - Dogs barking for Dog In The Fog (13/10) who won easily on debut and rated by the stable. Evening Parade (27/20 top 3 places) has run well against older horses recently and should hold form.