In this blog we review our bets from Week 4 and look ahead to the Week 5 fixtures on the 27th of September, focusing on all things betting related, including the latest handicaps, points lines, team news and weather conditions.
Matchday 5 produced plenty of drama, with Argentina sneaking past Australia in Sydney and South Africa inflicting New Zealand’s heaviest home defeat in Wellington. Those results have left all four sides locked on two wins apiece, setting up a fascinating run-in as we head into the penultimate round.
BET: South Africa v Argentina
Posted 26 Sep 09h55
Bet: 4 units under 55.5 points at 17/20 at BetXchange
This handicap opened at -16.5 and there was early support for Argentina, with the line briefly touching -15.5. Further money has since come for the visitors, with -13.5 and -14.5 now available in places.
This game is critical for both sides and I expect a cracking contest. The points line is 55.5 and, in Durban, that just feels a couple of points too high. The humidity is not excessive (late 70’s) and no rain is expected, but I still lean unders at this venue having been burnt many times going overs in Durban .
In other news what a game the Bledisloe Cup was, Australia delivered on the handicap after a slow start but I think they were hard done by in the 2nd half where some dubious penalties went there way.
BET: New Zealand v Australia
Posted 26 Sep 12h15
3 units Australia +16.5 at 0.87/1 at BetXchange
This handicap opened at -12.5 and steady support for the home team has pushed it out to -16.5 All Blacks. I’m not convinced by this New Zealand side though, and even with Australia missing a few key players I don’t mind this Wallabies lineup. They also look better coached, so I’m siding with the plus and may even have a small nibble at the 13/2 moneyline.
The points line is 56.5 and with conditions looking good, I think the market has this set about right.
Rugby Champs Betting and Weather Update
New Zealand -13.5 v Australia
Some money has come for the home side, with the handicap moving out from -12.5 to -13.5.
Eden Park Weather: Temperature mid-teens, humidity in the low 80s, with possible showers or storms.
Click here for updates
South Africa -16.5 v Argentina
The line has been fluctuating between -15.5 and -16.5 as the market looks for direction.
Durban Weather: Temperature in the low 20s, cloudy conditions expected, humidity around 80%.
Click here for updates
Round 5 Line Ups
Updated 26th Sept 09:00
New Zealand v Australia
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea (captain), 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Damian McKenzie
Australia: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Corey Toole, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Filipo Daugunu
South Africa v Argentina
Late change, Boan Venter will start in place of Ox Nche with Marco van Staden on the bench
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Marco van Staden, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Morné van den Berg, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Andre Esterhuizen
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Rodrigo Isgró, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo García, 8 Joaquín Oviedo, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Lucas Paulos, 4 Franco Molina, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (captain), 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Pedro Rubiolo, 21 Juan Martín González, 22 Simón Benítez Cruz, 23 Tomás Albornoz
Betting update
Posted 21 Sep 11h20
There has not been much movement
New Zealand -12.5 v Australia (stable)
South Africa -15.5 v Argentina (in a point from -16.5)
A busy week of rugby betting lies ahead with URC, Gallagher Prem, Top 14 and NPC and our forum thread is open
HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 14 Sep 22h11
The handicaps are out and here is how they compare to mine - Betxchange caps in brackets
New Zealand -12.5 (-13.5) v Australia
South Africa -13.5 (-16.5) v Argentina
A 3 point difference in the Boks game but no early move for me.
Week 4 Recap
Australia v Argentina (Sydney)
Bet: 3 units over 53.5 points at 9/10
Result: Argentina edged Australia 28–26 (total 54 points) ✅ WINNER
Argentina went well clear and one again Australia fought back but this time they failed to land the win. The overs bet scraped in on the back of what appeared to be a clear forward pass – I will take it though.
New Zealand v South Africa (Wellington)
Bet: 4 units over 5.5 tries at 17/20
Result: South Africa hammered New Zealand 43–10 (total 7 tries) ✅ WINNER
The Springboks dominated in a statement performance, crossing for six tries and handing New Zealand their heaviest home defeat in history. A clean winner on the tries market although it looked in trouble heading into the final quarter.
Overall: 2–0 on the weekend
Current Standings (after 4 rounds)
- Australia – 2W 2L, 11 pts
- South Africa – 2W 2L, 10 pts
- New Zealand – 2W 2L, 10 pts
- Argentina – 2W 2L, 9 pts
All four teams are within two log points of each other, meaning Week 5 will shape the title race.
Outright Betting (current prices at Hollywoodbets)
- South Africa 17/20
- New Zealand 14/10
- Australia 10/1
- Argentina 20/1
The bookmakers now have South Africa as firm favourites after their crushing win in Wellington, but with two rounds left, nothing is settled.
Looking Ahead – Week 5 Fixtures
Below my week 5 handicap projections, I will compare these with the bookmakers when they release handicaps
Saturday 27 September 2025
New Zealand v Australia (Auckland, Eden Park)
- Handicap Projection: New Zealand -12.5
The All Blacks rarely lose back-to-back tests at home, but confidence will be shaken after the Springboks defeat. Eden Park is a fortress, yet Australia will feel this is their chance to break a long winless streak in Auckland.
South Africa v Argentina (Durban, Kings Park)
- Handicap Projection: South Africa -13.5
The Boks return home buoyed by their biggest-ever win over New Zealand. Argentina, though, sit just one point off the top. Expect a physical contest where conditions in Durban could be crucial