International rugby is back and the opening weekend of the Autumn Internationals serves up a mouth-watering set of fixtures. In this blog, I’ll keep track of all things betting related, including team news, weather updates, handicap movements, and points lines.
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Shutting up shop
Posted 01 Nov 20h39
Not a great day for me and I was just hoping Japan could hold the ball for the final 2 minutes but it was too much to ask.
A silver lining is I was at a family braai and didn't get involved further on the England, Bok and Scots games (although have taken USA over 0.5 tries at 11/10 at the break) and I am unlikely to bet any further on the Irish game and will shout home the HT/FT
BET: Double – Barbarians & Boks Unders
Posted 01 Nov
1 unit Under Double at 2.7/1 at Betxchange
With rain about in both Brentford and London, I’m taking an unders double on the Barbarians v All Blacks XV match and the South Africa v Japan clash.
You can find my reasoning for the Bok game in the preview below, but while it’s always risky going unders in a Barbarians fixture, the weather looks set to play a part. Add to that a mix of physical Bok players and competitive New Zealanders, and there should be enough edge and structure to keep things tighter than usual for a Baa-Baas contest.
BET: Ireland v New Zealand
Posted 01 Nov 10h17
1 unit Halftime/Fulltime New Zealand/Ireland at 9/1 at Sportingbet
2 units Ireland to win at 21/10 at Supersportbet
The handicap on this game has moved between Ireland +3.5 and +6.5 several times during the week. As I type, BetXchange are showing +3.5 while others still have +6.5, so it’s worth shopping around before making your play.
This should be a cracking encounter. I’ve been considering the points line at 48.5, but with a few evening showers (currently after the game) forecast in Chicago, I’ll hold off for now and will make a call closer to kickoff.
I’m expecting a tight contest and at current prices, I see value in siding with the Irish. I really like their pack and although the All Blacks can switch it on at any moment, they haven’t fully convinced me this season. A moneyline play for now, along with a speculative Halftime/Fulltime stab on New Zealand leading at the break and Ireland finishing stronger.
BET: South Africa v Japan
Posted 01 Nov 09h06
3 units Under 64.5 points at 0.96/1 at Betxchange
The handicap for this game has been fairly stable around South Africa –37.5 all week, not far from the –39.5 line in Brighton back in 2015 when Japan produced one of rugby’s greatest upsets. I’m not the biggest Eddie Jones fan these days, but he remains a shrewd operator, and if pushed, I’d be tempted by the plus.
The points line sits at 64.5, and on a quick surface you’d normally expect tries. However, with showers in the forecast, I’m leaning towards the unders. There’s also a chance the Boks ease off at some stage with minds already turning to their clash with France next week.
BET: England v Australia
Posted 01 Nov 08h43
2 units Tribet either team +7.5 at 35/20 at Supersportbet
I’m tempted by the over 51.5 points in this game, but the line has edged down from 52.5, likely due to forecasts suggesting there will be showers during the match and not just before kickoff. I’ll hold fire for now and look to get involved once there’s more certainty on conditions.
The handicap has shifted from +9.5 Australia to the current +7.5, perhaps reflecting bookmakers factoring in a lower-scoring contest. This is always a fixture I enjoy, and while I think Australia will cover the handicap, with a possible bigger points play looming, I’m taking a small interest in the Tribet "either team to win by 7.5 points or less" as I think this one could go down to the wire.
BET: Scotland v USA
Posted 31 Oct 22h25
3 units USA over 7.5 points at 1/1 at Sportingbet
This handicap has shifted from –42.5 to the current line of –47.5 in favour of Scotland, who have named a strong side missing only a couple of first-choice players. I must admit to knowing very little about the USA squad, but with a points line this low, I can’t resist a small interest.
There are showers forecast during the day, though conditions should clear by kickoff. With a total points line of 65.5, I’m backing the USA to find an early penalty and perhaps a try at some point to land the spoils.
Barbarians and Munster lines are out
Posted 31 Oct 22h05
The Barbarians plays the All Blacks XV tomorrow at 15h15 SA time and they are +4.5
Munster host an Argentina XV and are -6.5
Very little change in the other matches and I will be taking a close look at the betting with an opening play out before the clock strikes 12.
Betting Update
Posted 31 Oct 00h10
Here is the latest handicaps and points lines
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England v Australia – England -9.5 | Points: 52.5
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South Africa v Japan – South Africa -37.5 | Points: 64.5
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Scotland v USA – Scotland -42.5 | Points: 63.5
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Ireland v New Zealand – Ireland +6.5 | Points: 48.5
For weather and lineups scroll down
Points lines are out!
Posted 29 Oct 23h53
Thanks to Southpaw in the forum for highlight early points lines at Hollywoodbets
England v Australia 52.5
South Africa v Japan 64.5
Scotland v USA 63.5
Ireland v New Zealand 48.5
He has jumped on New Zealand over 27.5
Autumn Internationals – Teams, Weather, Officials
Latest Update 28 Oct 23h39
England v Australia – Allianz Stadium, 17:10
Lineups:
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Fin Smith
Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Hamish Stewart, 23 Filipo Daugunu.
Weather in London: Temp early teens, rain forecast before and after the match so keep a close eye, humidity in 70's
Match Officials:
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
ARs: James Doleman (NZR), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
South Africa v Japan – Wembley Stadium, 18:10
Lineups:
South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada, 10 Lee Seung-sin, 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Ben Gunter, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Kenji Sato, 1 Kenta Kobayashi.
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Tyler Paul, 20 Faulua Makisi, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Tiennan Costley
Weather in London: Temp early teens, rain forecast before and after the match so keep a close eye, humidity in late 70's's
Match Officials:
Referee: Eoghan Cross (IRFU)
ARs: Ben O’Keeffe (NZR), Adam Leal (RFU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
Scotland v USA – Scottish Gas Murrayfield, 19:40
Lineups:
Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Ollie Smith, 12 Stafford McDowall (captain), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 Jamie Dobie, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Dylan Richardson, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Marshall Sykes, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 2 Patrick Harrison, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 Harri Morris, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Murphy Walker, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Max Williamson, 21 Magnus Bradbury, 22 George Horne, 23 Ross Thompson.
USA: 15 Erich Storti, 14 Mitch Wilson, 13 Dominic Besag, 12 Tommaso Boni, 11 Toby Fricker, 10 Chris Hilsenbeck, 9 Ruben de Haas, 8 Paddy Ryan, 7 Cory Daniel, 6 Viliami Helu, 5 Jason Damm (captain), 4 Marno Redelinghuys, 3 Pono Davis, 2 Kaleb Geiger, 1 Ezekiel Lindenmuth
Replacements: 16 Sean McNulty, 17 Payton Telea-Ilaio, 18 Maliu Niuafe, 19 Tevita Naqali, 20 Makeen Alikahn, 21 Ethan McVeigh, 22 Tavite Lopeti, 23 Luke Carty
Weather in Edinburgh: Cold around 7 degrees, humidity late 70's, forecast says dry but rain earlier in the day
Match Officials:
Referee: Damián Schneider (UAR)
ARs: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR), Katsuki Furuse (JRFU)
TMO: Leo Colgan (IRFU)
Ireland v New Zealand – Soldier Field, 22:10
Lineups:
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan (captain), 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Caelan Doris, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Bundee Aki.
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 23 Damian McKenzie.
Weather in Chicago: Cool at 8 degrees, humidity in 60's, should be dry but rain forecast soon after the game
Match Officials:
Referee: Pierre Brousset (FFR)
ARs: Karl Dickson (RFU), Luc Ramos (FFR)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
Handicaps out for Bok and Scotland games
Posted 27 Oct 22h30
No movement in the England and Ireland handicaps but we have 2 big lines for the 2 games released today
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England -8.5 v Australia
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South Africa -38.5 v Japan
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Scotland -42.5 v USA
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Ireland +3.5 v New Zealand
Team news will be crucial
Fixtures – Saturday, 1 November
- England v Australia – Allianz Stadium, 17:10
- South Africa v Japan – Wembley Stadium, 18:10
- Scotland v USA – Scottish Gas Murrayfield, 19:40
- Ireland v New Zealand – Soldier Field, 22:10
Early Thoughts
England -8.5 v Australia
This is always one of the highlights of the international calendar. Last year Australia looked dead and buried before coming back to win a thriller 42-37 and they have made a habit of slow starts and fast finished this season.
South Africa v Japan
A neutral-venue clash at Wembley and this should have plenty of action. South Africa team news will be interesting but I suspect the points lines will be my focus.
Scotland v USA
It will be interesting to see where the bookies come out with this one and I don’t have any early thoughts on the game.
Ireland +3.5 v New Zealand
The pick of the weekend and set for a massive atmosphere at Soldier Field. The handicap has ranged from -3.5 to -5.5 New Zealand and it is back to -3.5 at the time of posting.