BET: Argentina v South Africa
Posted 04 Oct 07h49
3 units South Africa over 35.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
The handicap touched Argentina +13.5 at one point but has since edged back to +15.5. I do like the Boks on the handicap, but I find myself eyeing their team points at 35.5 instead.
The one concern is the weather, with a chance of some light rain during the game. It doesn’t look like anything heavy though, and the surface should still be good. On that basis I’m happy to pull the trigger on the overs play.
Betting Update
Stoppage Time
Betting Update
BET: Australia v New Zealand
Posted 03 Oct 07h35
3 units Australia win at 37/20 at WSB
There has been solid support for Australia, with the handicap coming in from +5.5 to +3.5. They showed me enough at Eden Park to suggest they can win this game and while I am a bit late to the party, I am going to back them for the win. Both sides have their injury worries and Edmed at 10 is a concern, but the return of Skelton and Valetini (off the bench) swings it for me.
I have not seen points lines locally, but believe it is around 56.5. With some rain in the forecast, I’ll take another look at the totals closer to kick-off.
Weather Forecasts and Latest Betting
Week 6 Line Ups
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Rob Valetini, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Josh Flook
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Ruben Love
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Juan Gonzalez, 21 Joaquín Oviedo, 22 Agustin Moyano, 23 Rodrigo Isgro
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Jesse Kriel
Handicaps are out
Rugby Championship – Week 5 Betting Recap and Week 6 Preview
BET: South Africa v Argentina
Bet: 4 units under 55.5 points at 17/20 at BetXchange ❌ LOSER
This handicap opened -16.5 and money came for Argentina, with lines of -13.5 and -14.5 available before kick-off. In the end, the Boks blew the market apart, running in 67 points themselves in a 67–30 win in Durban (total 97 points). It was a cracking contest for the neutral but a painful watch for unders backers - Durban was no graveyard for points this time. I must say it felt early as though unders was a big runner but somehow that accidental drop out of Kolbe's which led to the Argentina try that was not even shown live changed the nature of the game.
Brilliant from the Boks!
BET: New Zealand v Australia
Bet: 3 units Australia +16.5 at 0.87/1 at BetXchange ✅ WINNER
The line opened -12.5 and was bet out to -16.5, but the Wallabies kept it much closer than the market expected. New Zealand won 33–24 at Eden Park (margin 9), meaning the plus landed. The points line was 56.5 and the total of 57 just crept over. A good result on the handicap, though I still think Australia were stiffed a bit by some decisions but also made critical mistakes like failing to find touch off penalties and kicking directly out from a restart.
Perth should be a cracker!
Overall Week 5: 1–1 (slight loss with heavier staking on the unders in Durban).
Updated Table (after 5 rounds)
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South Africa – 3W 2L, 15 pts, PD +55
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New Zealand – 3W 2L, 14 pts, PD -6
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Australia – 2W 3L, 11 pts, PD +1
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Argentina – 2W 3L, 9 pts, PD -50
The Springboks take over top spot with one round to go and any win at Twickenham should do it. .
Looking Ahead – Week 6 Fixtures & Projected Handicaps
Saturday, 04 October 2025
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Australia v New Zealand – Perth, 11:45 SAST
Projected Handicap: Australia +6.5 . -
Argentina v South Africa – Twickenham, 15:00 SAST
Projected Handicap: South Africa -21.5
The title will be decided on neutral turf for the Boks and in a hostile Perth for the All Blacks. I will compare my handicaps with the bookies when they are available.
