Round 10 of Super Rugby Pacific is upon us and in this blog we look at the latest results, how the table is shaping up, and project the weekends handicaps, before settling on a few bets for the weekend.
Bet: Waratahs v Moana Pasifika
Posted 17 April 09h13
2 units (1-5) under 65.5 points at 9/10 at Betxchange
The handicap is -21.5 and points are 65.5.
Conditions are not great and while lways nervous of unders when Pasifika play I am goingt o trust the model on this one.
Bet: Blues v Highlanders
Posted 17 April 07h23
2 units (1-5) Highlanders under 19.5 points at 8/10 at Pokerbet
Sorry this is so late its been a hectic week - you can click here for The Mossmans comments on last nights show and remember to sub to our free weekly newsletter (top right or click here)
The Blues have been backed from -11.5 to -15.5 and that looks about right to me and also the model.
If pushed I would still side with the Blues here but I prefer taking a position on Highlanders unders points. The weather looks ok but there is a chance of showers and the model is leaning towards Highlanders under 19 for a marginal play. I am going to take a slightly shorter price but an extra half point as at 19.5 as 3 tries could still be a winner if 1 conversion is missed.
This bet would have arrived in the last 2 meetings in Auckland between the sides.
Early Handicaps
Posted 13 April 09h15
Here are the early handicaps at Betxchange in brackets next to my projections
Blues -10.5 (-11.5) vs Highlanders
Waratahs -21.5 (-19.5) vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -4.5 (-2.5) vs Hurricanes
Brumbies -24.5 (-19.5) vs Fijian Drua
Western Force +7.5 (+8.5) vs Crusaders
All within 2 points other than the Brumbies v Drua - the model agrees with me on the Brumbies minus and I am going to take some stock - lets see if the market agrees
BET: 2 units Brumbies -19.5 at 9/10 at Betxchange
Handicap Projections
Posted 12 April 19h32
Below are my handicap projections for the 5 matches
Blues -10.5 vs Highlanders
Waratahs -21.5 vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -4.5 vs Hurricanes
Brumbies -24.5 vs Fijian Drua
Western Force +7.5 vs Crusaders
Model Testing
I will continue to test a rugby betting model for a member of the Goodforthegame community. The aim of my testing is to improve the model and early indications are it has potential although should not be followed religiously yet.
In some cases I will follow the models picks and in others go with my own while sharing the models predictions.
Max Bet will be 5 units.
ROUND 9 RESULTS
Highlanders 10 v 14 Brumbies – the biggest bet of the weekend lands (Brumbies -1.5) and the model got off to a great start although had also called for a high scoring game.
Moana Pasifika 17 v 62 Chiefs – I stayed out of this one and the model came up short going with Moana +31.5 and under 68.5 points
Fijian Drua 24 v 22 Western Force – the Drua led 19-7 at one stage but failed to kick on and deliver my -4.5 play.
Hurricanes 42 v 19 Blues – The model was spot on with strong suggested plays on the Hurricanes -9.5 and the over 53.5. I was hesitant but hit the 56-62 total points margin at just shy of 4/1
Reds 31 v 26 Crusaders – a great win for the Reds who started +3.5. I backed them to win at 31/20 and the model was on a marginal over 55.5 play which would have landed with the final conversion.
Overall a successful punting weekend with only the Drua letting me down.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
The Hurricanes (30 pts) have extended their lead at the top of the table and continue to look like the team to beat this season. They have played one game less than all of the other playoff contenders.
The Chiefs (27 pts) have strengthened their position in 2nd following a dominant win, while the Blues (25 pts) remain in 3rd despite their loss last weekend.
The Brumbies (24 pts) are 4th and remain well placed in the playoff positions after grinding out a win over the Highlanders.
The Reds (22 pts) hold onto 5th after an important win over the Crusaders, while the Crusaders (20 pts) remain in 6th and inside the playoff positions.
Just outside the top six are the Highlanders (15 pts) and Waratahs (14 pts), both needing results soon to keep their playoff hopes alive, although the Waratahs do have a game in hand over all the teams above them other than the Hurricanes.
Further down, the Fijian Drua (12 pts) and Western Force (10 pts) need a miracle, while Moana Pasifika (4 pts) continue to struggle at the foot of the table.
ROUND 10 FIXTURES
Friday 17 April 2026
Blues vs Highlanders (09:05)
Waratahs vs Moana Pasifika (11:35)
Saturday 18 April 2026
Chiefs vs Hurricanes (09:05)
Brumbies vs Fijian Drua (11:35)
Western Force vs Crusaders (13:55)
My projected handicaps will follow later today (Sunday)
