Round 4 of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific season is complete and in this blog we will recap the results and their impact on the table before looking ahead to Round 5 from a betting angle.
Round 5 Handicaps are out!
Posted 09 March 09h12
We have handicaps and Betxchange early lines in brackets next to my projections
Hurricanes -15.5 (-18.5)v Western Force
Fijian Drua -2.5 (+7.5) v Brumbies
Crusaders -9.5 (-8.5) v Highlanders
Queensland Reds -8.5 (-6.5) v Waratahs
Blues -25.5 (-26.5) v Moana Pasifika
All pretty close other than the Drua and I am going with my gut on this one. Rather than take a position on the handicap I will keep stakes small and have a win bet on the Drua.
BET: 1 unit (1-5) Drua win at 23/10 at Betxchange
Super Rugby Pacific Round 5 Handicap Projections
Posted 08 March 11h50
Below are my handicap projections for Round 5 which will be compared to the bookmakers lines on Monday
Hurricanes -15.5 v Western Force
Fijian Drua -2.5 v Brumbies – game played at 4R Stadium in Fiji (11st SRP game ever there)
Crusaders -9.5 v Highlanders
Queensland Reds -8.5 v Waratahs
Blues -25.5 v Moana Pasifika
ROUND 4 RESULTS RECAP
Posted 08 March
Chiefs 57–24 Moana Pasifika – Chiefs backed from -22.5 to -32.5 when I last looked. I went unders as the 69.5 seemed high but it wasn’t high enough
Waratahs 19–59 Hurricanes – Waratahs (+2.5) were in contention at the break but were blown away in the 2nd half as was my Waratahs board bet.
Highlanders 39–31 Western Force – this one landed very close to the handicap and I never got involved
Blues 29–13 Crusaders – I made Blues -2.5 my newsletter bet (sign up top right on desktop or click here) and they delivered comfortably.
Brumbies 31–34 Reds – Reds were well back from +10.5 to +3.5 and the plus backers were in trouble with 2 minutes to go when they trailed by 11 points but amazingly they went bang, bang to win the game. I went for either team by 7 or less at 1.38/1 but despite typing this one out I forgot to post it in the blog.
LEAGUE TABLE UPDATE
After four rounds the ACT Brumbies remain top of the Super Rugby Pacific standings, with three wins from their opening four matches and a healthy points differential keeping them clear at the summit.
The Chiefs sit second, also with three wins from four matches, while the Hurricanes are third having played one game fewer but boasting the strongest points differential in the competition so far.
The Blues occupy fourth place after splitting their opening fixtures, while the NSW Waratahs and Queensland Reds round out the top six.
Just outside the top six sit the Highlanders, who have two wins from four matches, while the Crusaders have struggled early, managing just one victory from their opening four games and sitting eighth on the table.
Further down the ladder, the Fijian Drua, Western Force and Moana Pasifika are still trying to build momentum after difficult starts to the campaign and will need strong results in the coming weeks to stay within touching distance of the playoff places.
I will be back with my handicap projections for Round 5 later today.
