The Rugby Championship Week 4 Betting Blog

In this blog we review our bets from Week 3 and look ahead to the Week 4 fixtures, focusing on all things betting related, including the latest handicaps, points lines, team news and weather conditions.

WHAT A MATCH 

Posted 13 Sep 11h18 

The best game of rugby the Boks have ever played - what a win and the over 5.5 tries arrives on the back of a very fortunate win on over 53.5 in Aus. How that final pass wasn't called forward nobody knows. 

Enjoy the Currie Cup and WRWC - bets posted in the blogs 

BET: NEW ZEALAND v SOUTH AFRICA 
Posted 12 Sep 16h43
4 units over 5.5 tries at 17/20 at Sportingbet 

This handicap opened -3.5 New Zealand and has moved around the -4.5 and -6.5 levels all week. 
I don't have a firm view on the handicap but this week I fancy points. 
The line is 49.5 and while conditions look decent there is wind and this can be a tough ground to kick at. 
I prefer the over 5.5 tries as even with 6 converted tries we would need 3 penalties and if it is windy the 100% conversion rate might be optimistic. 

I will be back tonight and in the morning with updates and possibly another bet 

BET: AUSTRALIA v ARGENTINA 
Posted 12 Sep 
3 units over 53.5 points at 9/10 at WSB 

Australia are -4.5 at the time of writing and the caps has bounced between -14.5 and -5.5 all week. 
They pulled off a brilliant win last week but were also well behind at the break and I don't have a strong fancy on the handicap although leaning Australia. 
Points fell short of the 55.5 line in Townsville last week but I am wading in again in what look like being excellent conditions in Sydney. 

WEATHER AND BETTING UPDATES 
Posted 12 Sep 08h29
Here is the latest betting as well as the current weather forecasts

Australia -4.5 v Argentina, points 53.5, temp late teens, dry, humidity in 50's - click here for updates

New Zealand -6.5 v South Africa, points 48.5, temp around 12 degrees, should be dry but possible showers, humidity 60% - click here for updates  

Round 4 Line Ups

Updated 11^th Sep 08:45

Australia v Argentina

Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Corey Toole, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Filipo Daugunu

Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Rodrigo Isgró, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo García, 8 Joaquín Oviedo, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martín González, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (captain), 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Agustín Moyano, 22 Justo Piccardo, 23 Ignacio Mendy

New Zealand v South Africa

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Ruben Love

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Andre Esterhuizen

Money for the All Blacks

Posted 10 Sep 09h01 

The All Blacks are now -6.5 from -4.5 at last all and there is also support for Australia now -5.5 from -4.5, 

Betting update 

Posted 8th Sep 13h53 

Here is the current handicaps with the Boks drifting a point after naming the team 

Australia -4.5 v Argentina 

New Zealand -4.5 v South Africa 

Rugby Championship Week 3 Recap

Posted 08 Sep

Australia v Argentina (Townsville)

• Bet: 3 units over 55.5 points at 9/10

• Result: Australia edged Argentina 28–24 (total 52 points) ❌ LOSER

• A thrilling finish saw the Wallabies steal it with an Angus Bell try after the siren. The overs fell short despite six tries being scored.

New Zealand v South Africa (Eden Park)

• Bet: 4 units under 48.5 points at 9/10 – this was the newsletter bet, click here to get my weekly betting e-mail

• Result: New Zealand beat South Africa 24–17 (total 41 points) ✅ WINNER

• The heavyweight clash lived up to its billing with brutal defence on both sides after 2 early New Zealand tries. The under was never really in danger, making this the standout result of the weekend.

Overall: 1–1 on the weekend, but with heavier staking on the Eden Park under, Week 3 finished in profit.

Current Standings (after 3 rounds)

1. New Zealand – 2W 1L, 11 pts

2. Australia – 2W 1L, 9 pts

3. South Africa – 1W 2L, 8 pts

4. Argentina – 1W 2L, 6 pts

The All Blacks sit top after their Eden Park victory, but the margins are fine. South Africa are still in the mix, though they’ll need to beat New Zealand in Wellington in Round 4 to stay in contention.

Looking Ahead – Round 4 Fixtures and current handicaps

Saturday 13 September 2025

• Australia -5.5 v Argentina – Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney

• New Zealand -3.5 v South Africa – Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington

Current Betting (Outrights)

• New Zealand 4/10

• South Africa 47/10

• Australia 53/10

• Argentina 41/1

I will be back tomorrow with more including an early team announcement by South Africa.