Rugby Championship Week 6, URC Rd 2, NPC wk 10, Prem, Top 14 + other rugby

It was a good weekend on the betting front for me, with a few standout highlights:

• The Stormers turning over Leinster in Cape Town.
• Overs arriving in the Bronze medal match at the Women’s Rugby World Cup - this was the newsletter bet - click here to get my weekly mail 
• Loftus delivering big-time with overs in the Bulls–Ospreys clash.
• Cardiff covering the handicap against the Lions, which also nudged me ahead of Oracle in our comp (still not 100% sure how it works, but I’ll take it!).

On the downside, I looked ridiculous taking unders in the Bok test, and my faith in Canada in the Women’s Final didn’t pay off – England were just too good in the end.Plenty of quality rugby on the slate again this weekend – URC, Rugby Championship Round 6, Premiership, NPC and Top 14 all lining up.

Rugby Champs Blog is up  I was pretty close with the Aussie cap but I went -21.5 Boks in London and the bookies are -12.5

My URC handicap projections and a wrap of week 1 are in the blog 

Here are my handicap projections which will be compared to the bookies. 

Friday, 3 October 2025

Stormers -17.5 v Ospreys
Dragons +6.5 v Sharks
Edinburgh -3.5 v Ulster

Saturday, 4 October 2025

Connacht -12.5 v Scarlets
Zebre +5.5 v Lions
Bulls -23.5 v Leinster
Benetton +4.5 v Glasgow
Munster -9.5 v Cardiff

Have a great week and I look forward to your thoughts 

Here's my shot at handicaps for the URC this week:

Friday, 3 October 2025

Stormers -21.5 v Ospreys
Dragons +5.5 v Sharks
Edinburgh +5.5 v Ulster

Saturday, 4 October 2025

Connacht -8.5 v Scarlets
Zebre -4.5 v Lions
Bulls -10.5 v Leinster
Benetton +7.5 v Glasgow
Munster -3.5 v Cardiff

Early URC Caps from BetXchange

Stormers -16.5
Dragons +4.5
Edinburgh -5.5
Connacht - 9.5
Bulls -8.5
Benetton +3.5
Munster -11.5
Zebre +1.5
 

Here is how my caps compare to the books (in brackets)  with the Bulls game well out, Wager Warlock you were much closer to the mark there 

I was assuming Leisner fielded a similar side to the one that played the Stormers - does anyone have info on this? Friday, 3 October 2025
Stormers -17.5 (-15.5) v Ospreys
Dragons +6.5 (+4.5) v Sharks
Edinburgh -3.5 (-5.5) v UlsterSaturday, 4 October 2025
Connacht -12.5 (-9.5) v Scarlets
Zebre +5.5 (+1.5) v Lions
Bulls -23.5 (-8.5) v Leinster
Benetton +4.5 (+3.5) v Glasgow
Munster -9.5 (-11.5) v Cardiff
 

Bok team announced

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Jesse Kriel

What type of demonic, sadist decided to list rugby teams 15 -9, and then after 1 - 8 ?
As if the game itself wasn't difficult enough.  Nah, just put it on top of the package marked 'FRAGILE - GLASS INSIDE'.
I'd love to know what his IQ is 
I can see it being some kind nutty professor (Clousow'ish) type...

Valence Romans -10.5 ha @1.90 2u

I have an expected line around 15 points advantage to Valence so value in the home side. They rotated heavily last week in Oyonnax so will be fresh, MDM with a very disappointing defeat at home against the newly promoted Carcassonne last weekend. Very tough season ahead with this squad and with their unexperienced coaches. Half pair absences for this match and expect some rotation in the pack.

Los Pumas line up 

Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Justo Piccardo, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Juan Cruz Mallia, 10 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 9 Simon Cruz Benitez, 8 Santiago Grondona, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (captain), 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Juan Gonzalez, 21 Joaquín Oviedo, 22 Agustin Moyano, 23 Rodrigo Isgro

U53.5 Edinburgh-Ulster @1.85 2u

It was available in asian bookies yesterday and took It due to forecast (very bad weather expected before the match and also strong wind around 40 knots during the match)

Expect the line to open below 50 in main bookies so value there.

The Mossman returns on tonights Handicap show - c lick here to watch on You Tube or set a reminder 

URC Blog updated with latest caps and weather and yes things look bleak in Edinburgh 

 

Pro D2 teams :  www.allrugby.com/news/pro-d2-2026-j6-compos-3301.html

Can’t believe they’ve offered that line, 10 points too high imo. Will be all over that if that price holds

U52.5 dragons-sharks @1.80 2u
U48.5 bath-sale sharks @1.80 2u

Same reason, radar shows even rain in both locations apart from strong winds (up to 35 knots in stadiums heavily exposed).

Following the Mossman on North Harbour -6.5 in the Bunnings at 0.92/1 

Guys look out for a show tomorrow evening at 17h00 with The Admiral and The Crowe Tips - we will focus on their strongest plays for the weekend and also cover the Prem 

Looking at the rain radar, drying up it seems for the N Harbour game so I've gone over 51.5 

Edit: awful game. Neither side looks like they want to be there .....

Edit2: There was me thinking Welsh rugby is shite - this is shockingly bad.

Rugby Championship Blog updated 

Australia win at 37/20 

URC Blog updated with all Friday bets 

Edi -5.5 at 9/10
Sharks 1-12 at 6/4 

Here is the link for the live show at 17h00 covering the Prem, URC and Rugby Champs bets 

Can somebody tell me why the f@@k I keep on going overs? I'd like to think its because of a longing for free flowing, try scoring rugby. But I now recognise that its down to shear stupidity.

Mont de Marsan being Toulouse tonight, ok.

pablo wrote:

Mont de Marsan being Toulouse tonight, ok.

Valence delivered, but the unders of tonight look bad