In this blog we will recap the international fixtures that took place on 15 and 16 November and look at all things betting related for next weekend fixtures which include the massive Ireland v South Africa clash.
England v Argentina
Posted 23 Nov 17h01
Bet: 4 units England over 30.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet
The handicap is stable at England -9.5 and conditions look like they’ll be good by kickoff. I was tempted by the over 51.5 total points line, but I’ve been leaning England all week and prefer to side with their team points. I’m backing England to get me 31 or more.
Look out for the URC betting blog and preview of Wales v South Africa which will be up Monday morning latest
BET: England v Argentina
Posted 23 Nov 08h46
1 unit Marcus Smith – Last England Try Scorer at 16/1 at Pokerbet
Smith is likely to be on the field when England score their final try, as he is coming off the bench. He’s an electric player who often creates scores for others, but at 16/1 I think there is some decent value that the moment falls his way.
England are currently –9.5 with points at 50.5, and conditions are expected to clear by kick-off. I will post my main bet once I have more certainty on the weather.
Bet Scotland v Tonga
Posted 23 Nov
2 units under 9.5 tries at 1/1 at Sportingbet
This handicap has shifted from Scotland -42.5 to -38.5, and the total points line has dropped from 65.5 to 61.5, most likely due to the weather forecast, which suggests light rain through out the day.
The challenge with this match is that I genuinely have no feel for Tonga right now, and Scotland’s confidence can’t be sky-high after coughing up a huge lead against Argentina last week. With that in mind, this is purely a weather-based play. A small interest on under 10 tries is the call.
Brutal Boks do the business
Posted 23 Nov 07h57
Overall it was a good days punting with the Boks physically dominating Ireland, who to their credit fought with tremendous guts to keep the margin to within two scores. The Boks won by 11 to deliver the -6.5 (and the -5.5 newsletter bet - sign up top right of page), and New Zealand cleared the 6.5-try mark with that second-half burst against Wales.
My Australia unders went up in smoke, but I woke up to the pleasant surprise that the Capuozzo FTS play arrived at 7/1.
Onto today’s fixtures: Scotland are now -38.5 from -42.5 and the points line has shifted to 61.5 from 65.5. I’m a bit annoyed I didn’t get on the unders early when I saw the forecast. England remain -9.5 against Argentina with total points at 50.5 and bets will follow.
BET Italy v Chile
Posted 22 Nov 10h32
1 unit Ange Capuozzo – First Italy Try Scorer at 7/1 at Pokerbet
Not a game I am going to get heavily involved in, but I’ll take a small interest on Italy’s slippery No. 15 getting the home side’s first try. The handicap is -30.5, having moved sharply from -25.5 just 24 hours ago. Total points is sitting at 53.5 and conditions should be decent enough. Capuozzo is always dangerous in broken play and at 7/1 he makes appeal for a fun interest in what should be a comfortable Italian win.
Bet: France v Australia
Posted 22 Nov 07h35
3 units Australia under 18.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
I handicapped this game at France –15.5, so I wasn’t surprised to see money arrive for the home team. I didn’t get on early though, and while I still think the current –17.5 France line is fair, I’m looking elsewhere for my main play.
The total points line is 55.5 and conditions are expected to be very cold with temperatures either side of freezing and even the possibility of light snow. Australia have a good side on paper, but they’ve looked like a team desperate to get home after a long and hard season, and their performances have dipped steadily through the tour.
I’m betting they don’t reach 19 points.
Ireland v South Africa
Posted 22 Nov 07h19
4 units South Africa -6.5 at 0.93/1 at WSB
This handicap has moved between -4.5 and -6.5 South Africa all week, but there has definitely been support for the Boks with -6.5 now the best widely available and even some +7.5 Ireland showing. In yesterday’s newsletter (sign up here) I grabbed some -5.5 and I’m sticking with my original feeling that South Africa will eventually wear Ireland down and draw clear late.
On the points front the line is 46.5. I’m not getting involved, but I would lean unders in what should be an arm-wrestle-type contest. Rain is forecast after the game, but humidity will be in the high 80s and historically these Dublin tests are low scoring.
I’ll be watching while playing my year-end poker tournament and I cannot wait for kick off.
Weekly betting Newsletter
Posted 21 Nov 10h12: My rugby focused betting newsletter will be sent out later this morning - click here if you are not on my mailing list
Wales v New Zealand
Posted 21 Nov 10h10
4 units New Zealand over 6.5 tries at 17/20 at Pokerbet
I set this handicap at -30.5 All Blacks and it is currently sitting around -28.5 after opening -26.5 earlier in the week. I still think it will start in the 30s. With the roof closed at the Principality Stadium, weather won’t be a factor and I’m expecting an open, fast game.
The All Blacks should tear this Welsh defence apart and I’m backing them to score 7 tries or more. The total points line is 59.5, and if your bookmaker doesn’t offer New Zealand team tries, then New Zealand over 43.5 points is a solid alternative.
The Handicap live at 21h00 SA Time
Posted 20 Nov 20h14
Our weekly betting show The Handicap "Rugby chat that matters" is live in around 45 minutes - click here to join us on You Tube (you can set a reminder)
Points lines are out
Posted 20 Nov 08h05
We have points lines, not much handicap movement since the last update
Wales +28.5 v New Zealand, points 60.5
Ireland +6.5 v South Africa, points 46.5
Italy -25.5 v Chile, points 53.5
France -16.5 v Australia, points 52.5
Scotland -42.5 v Tonga, points 65.5
England -9.5 v Argentina, points 50.5
Lineups, Officials and Weather
Posted 20 Nov 07h50 but will be updated until all information is in place
Wales v New Zealand
Date: Saturday 22 November
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17:10 SAST
Weather: Roof to be closed
Referee: Hollie Davidson (SRU)
Assistant Referees: Andrea Piardi (FIR), Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Tom Rogers, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins.
New Zealand: 15 Ruben Love, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Tamaiti Williams.
Replacements: 16 George Bell, 17 Fletcher Newell, 18 George Bower, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Christian Lio-Willie, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 23 Sevu Reece.
Ireland v South Africa
Date: Saturday 22 November
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 19:40 SAST
Weather: Temp 6 degrees, overcast, rain forecast in morning and after game, humidity late 80's - click here for updates
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
Ireland: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Tom Farrell.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
France v Australia
Date: Saturday 22 November
Venue: Stade de France
Kick-off: 22:10 SAST
Weather: 3 degrees, rain expected, humidity early 90's - click here for updates
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (IRFU), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Nicolas Depoortere, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Regis Montagne, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros.
Replacements: 16 Maxime Lamothe, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Thomas Laclayat, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Baptiste Jauneau, 23 Kalvin Gourgues.
Australia – updated after Gordon withdrawal: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Feassler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Aiden Ross, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Rob Valentini, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Hamish Stewart, 23 Filipo Daugunu.
Italy v Chile
Date: Saturday 22 November
Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Kick-off: 22:10 SAST
Weather: Cool but clear with temp 7 degrees and humidity in the 40's - click here for updates
Referee: Adam Leal (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Adam Jones (WRU), Ben Connor (WRU)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo; 14 Mirko Belloni, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane; 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Garbisi; 1 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 3 Simone Ferrari; 4 Niccolò Cannone, 5 Federico Ruzza; 6 Alessandro Izekor, 7 Michele Lamaro, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Pablo Dimcheff, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Enoch Opoku Gyamfi, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Martin Page-Relo, 22 Juan Ignacio Brex, 23 Edoardo Todaro
Chile: 15 Matías Garafulic, 14 Clemente Armstrong, 13 Domingo Saavedra, 12 Santiago Videla, 11 Nicolás Saab, 10 Juan Cruz Reyes, 9 Lucas Berti, 8 Alfonso Escobar, 7 Clemente Saavedra (captain), 6 Ernesto Tchimino, 5 Javier Eissmann, 4 Santiago Pedrero, 3 Iñaki Gurruchaga, 2 Augusto Böhme, 1 Javier Carrasco
Replacements: 16 Raimundo Martínez, 17 Salvador Lues, 18 Matías Dittus, 19 Bruno Sáez, 20 Augusto Villanueva, 21 Sebastián Bianchi, 22 Tomás Salas, 23 Joaquín Milesi
Scotland v Tonga
Date: Sunday 23 November
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 15:40 SAST
Weather: Cold at 4 degrees, rain forecast, humidity in high 90's - click here for updates
Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Evan Urruzmendi (FFR), Benoît Rousselet (FFR)
TMO: Tual Trainini (FFR)
Scotland: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Kyle Rowe, 13 Ollie Smith, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Fergus Burke, 9 Ben White, 8 Magnus Bradbury, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Andy Onyeama-Christie, 5 Max Williamson, 4 Alex Samuel, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Marshall Sykes, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Stafford McDowall, 23 Kyle Steyn.
Tonga: 15 William Havili, 14 Taniela Filimone, 13 Fine Inisi, 12 Solomone Kata, 11 John Tapueluelu, 10 Patrick Pellegrini, 9 Sonatane Takulua, 8 Lotu Inisi, 7 Siosiua Moala, 6 Semisi Paea, 5 Veikoso Poloniati, 4 Harison Mataele, 3 Ben Tameifuna (captain), 2 Siua Maile, 1 Siegfried Fisi’ihoi
Replacements: 16 Samiuela Moli, 17 Fatongia Paea, 18 Phillip Kite, 19 Sitaleki Timani, 20 Fotu Lokotui, 21 Aisea Halo, 22 Tima Fainga’anuku, 23 Anzelo Tuitavuki
England v Argentina
Date: Sunday 23 November
Venue: Twickenham Stadium, London
Kick-off: 18:10 SAST
Weather: Rain before game but should be clear, temp 7 degrees, humidity high 70's - click here for updates
Referee: Pierre Brousset (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Sam Grove-White (SRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
England – Dingwall replaced by Ojomoh: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Max Ojomoh, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Asher Opoku-Fordjour, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Charlie Ewels, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Alex Mitchell, 23 Marcus Smith
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Justo Piccardo, 11 Bautista Delguy, 10 Thomas Albornoz, 9 Simon Benitez Cruz, 8 Santiago Grondona, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Pedro Delgado, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Tomas Rapetti, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Joaquin Oviedo, 22 Agustin Moyano, 23 Santiago Carreras
Betting Update - Aussies on the drift
Posted 18 Nov 23h39
Wales +28.5 v New Zealand - I think I saw some -31.5 earlier but may have been mistaken
Ireland +5.5 v South Africa - bouncing between +4.5 and +6.5
France -17.5 v Australia - move from -13.5 to -15.5 and now -17.5
Italy -26.5 v Chile - money for Italy from -23.5
Scotland -42.5 v Tonga
England -10.5 v Argentina - some money for England, line has moved a point
Weather, match officials and team news template will be up Thursday as I am travelling tomorrow - nothing glamourous a drive to Giyani in Limpopo.
Betting Update: New Zealand back to -28.5
Posted 17 Nov 22h17
Here is the latest betting, all of the handicaps now very close to mine so not seeing a lot of value. Ireland have firmed to +4.5 from an opening call of +6.5.
Wales +28.5 v New Zealand
Ireland +4.5 v South Africa
France -15.5 v Australia
Italy -23.5 v Chile
Scotland -42.5 v Tonga
England -9.5 v Argentina
Wales go +24.5
Posted 17 Nov 08h03
Wales are now +24.5 from +26.5 so the line has shifted opposite to what I expected. Going to keep a close eye on team news but that minus is getting tempting. France out a point to -14.5 from -13.5.
Handicaps Are Up!
Posted 16 Nov 22h54
Betxchange are up with their handicaps - here is how they compare to mine
Wales +30.5 v New Zealand (bookies: +26.5) - my 1st thought was -26.5 but I think money will come for AB's
Ireland +6.5 v South Africa (bookies: +4.5) - I expect this to start around +6.5 Ireland
France -15.5 v Australia (bookies: -13.5) - close to where I priced it, think France will firm
England -9.5 v Argentina (bookies: -9.5) - right where I priced it
My Projected Handicaps for Next Weekend
Posted 16 Nov 10h58
(These will be compared to the bookmakers once they price up)
-
Wales +30.5 v New Zealand
-
Ireland +6.5 v South Africa
-
France -15.5 v Australia
-
England -9.5 v Argentina (may be amended after Scotland v Argentina)
Betting Recap Week 3, 15 and 16 November
Let’s look back at what was for me a poor betting weekend with England the only highlight and my Newsletter Best Bet (click here to join my mailing list) of overs in Scotland still to come - 21h45 - updated with Scotland Bet
Italy 14–32 South Africa
My Bet: Italy over 17.5 points at 17/20 – ❌
Italy never really fired on attack and the Bok defence was rock solid despite going down to 14 men in the 11th minute. A frustrating loss to start the weekend and the game itself was a tough stop/start affair with the French TMO determined to make a name for himself.
England 33–19 New Zealand
My Bet: England win at 0.93/1 – ✅
My Bet: England 15+ at 5.8/1 – ❌
The main bet landed as England delivered a strong performance, pulling clear in the second half. The 15+ looked a big runner but the missed conversion of the final England try snuffed it.
Wales 24–23 Japan
My Bet: Rees-Zammit 2+ tries at 4/1 – ❌
My Bet: Wales over 4.5 tries at 25/20 – ❌
A dramatic finish and Wales got the win, but nowhere near enough tries and Rees-Zammit got 1 try but very few chances. Wales are in a shambles heading into games against the All Blacks and Boks.
France 34–21 Fiji
My Bet: France over 5.5 tries at 0.67/1 – ❌
France dominated large periods and got 3 tries early but they let Fiji back in and started going for posts.
Ireland 46–19 Australia
My Bet: Under 47.5 points at 0.93/1 – ❌
My Bet: Australia win at 3.6/1 – ❌
A tough result. Ireland were too strong and the points tally sailed past the required mark. The Aussie upset never materialised and they looked a very tired team. The big Ireland win sets the clash up against the Boks beautifully.
Scotland 24-33 Argentina
My Bet: Over 49.5 points at 17/20 – ✅
I placed this early and the line started at 51.5. This bet looked in serious trouble at 14-0 Scotland at halftime but a frantic 2nd half comeback from the Pumas saw it home.
I also took a 22/1 double Eng & NZL equal tries onto Ire & Aus equal tries but it was never a runner.
I will be back shortly with projected handicaps for next weekend